Commodity market report
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64 Pages

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

China's gas market continues to grab headlines, with anti-pollution policies driving demand higher and the 38 bcm Power of Siberia pipeline deal finally agreed with Russia. However, the sector does face some headwinds, with slower GDP growth, higher end-user prices and only modest progress in domestic shale gas to-date. 

The H1 2014 China long-term gas market outlook considers these developments and provides our latest outlooks for gas supply, demand and pricing.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 3.25 MB 64 Pages, 18 Tables, 60 Figures
  • China Gas Data.xls XLS - 1.67 MB
  • Appendix - China domestic supply by project basin H1 2014.pdf PDF - 7.69 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Environmental targets boosting mid-term and long-term gas demand growth
    • Progress on shale, but imports to keep rising
    • East Siberia Pipeline deal concluded, no impact on our LNG demand view
    • Higher gas prices now a reality, with the residential sector now bracing for price hikes
    • Medium-term power demand growth remains 'soft' on the back of weaker GDP
    • Key facts and updates
      • China gas demand by sector
      • China gas demand by province
      • China gas market balance
      • China power available capacity
      • China power market balance
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Regulatory structure
      • Regulatory environment
    • China gas sector policy & regulation
      • Further reform needs
  • Demand
    • Introduction
    • Gas demand overview
      • Gas-to-power demand to see the largest incremental increase
      • Gas demand in coastal regions outstrips the national average
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
    • Industrial sector
      • Industrial fuel sector
      • Chemical & fertilisers sector
      • Industrial oil product displacement
      • Industrial coal displacement
      • Residential & commercial sector
    • Transport sector
    • NGV Market
    • LNG vehicles will fuel near to medium term NGV growth
    • LNG Vessel Market
    • Power Sector
  • Supply
    • Introduction
    • Domestic gas resources
      • Conventional gas resources
    • Corporate distribution of conventional domestic gas resources
    • Domestic gas production overview
    • Appendix: Domestic supply by project/basin
  • Trade
    • Gas Imports - Pipeline
      • Central Asian Imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
      • Myanmar Imports
      • Russia Imports
      • Unconventional gas resources
    • Gas Imports - LNG
      • LNG import contracts
      • LNG corporate landscape
        • CNOOC
        • PetroChina
        • Sinopec
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development & proposed
      • Gas imports infrastructure
        • Trans-Asia pipeline
        • Myanmar pipeline
        • Russia pipelines
      • LNG import infrastructure
      • CNOOC
      • PetroChina
      • Sinopec
      • Others
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Contracted Supply
      • Contracted Supply vs Demand
    • Domestic Supply Availability
      • Forecast Domestic Supply Availability & Contracted Imports vs Demand
      • China Supply & Demand Balance
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
      • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
      • LNG Demand by Province
  • Prices
    • Introduction
    • China's new gas pricing structure
      • New China City Gate Gas Prices (2013 Real)
      • China post-reform netback gas pricing structure
      • Key pipeline transportation tariffs Q4 2013 (US$/mmbtu)*
      • China supply cost by project (US$/mmbtu 2013 terms)
      • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into shanghai (2013 terms)
      • Assumed East Siberia contract price into Beijing (2013 terms)
      • China weighted average cost of gas
    • End-user pricing
      • Power
      • Non-power
        • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q1 2014)
        • Industry
        • Comparative industrial user gas prices (Q1 2014)
        • Residential & commercial
        • Transport
        • Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • China key gas supply and market uncertainties

In this report there are 78 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key facts
    • Executive summary: Table 2
    • Executive summary: Table 3
    • Executive summary: Table 4
    • Executive summary: Table 5
    • Executive summary: Table 6
    • Key changes to regulation and policy in H2 2013 update
  • Economic outlook
    • China GDP growth
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
    • China gas sector policy & regulation
    • Summary of 12th Five Year Plan energy targets
  • Demand
    • Comparison of Wood Mackenzie and official forecasts
    • Total China gas demand by sector
    • China demand by province
    • China 2013 gas demand distribution map
    • Industrial fuel gas demand by provinces
    • Gas demand in chemical sector by provinces
    • Industrial energy demand by fuel type
    • Gas vs. oil product demand in industry
    • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
    • Number of population connected to gas by province
    • Transport gas demand (bcm)
    • Transport gas demand by province
    • NGV number
    • Riverway and coastal gas demand
    • Gas demand in power by region
  • Supply
    • Conventional domestic gas resources by region/basin
    • Remaining gas resources (conventional commercial and technical) by region/ basin
    • Resources grouping by NOCs/IOCs
    • China resources of NOCs/IOCs
    • China supply outlook by region/basin
    • % Share by region/basin
    • China conventional/unconventional supply
    • Supply growth by region/basin
  • Trade
    • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
    • Trans-Asia - capacity vs contracts
    • Myanmar-china pipeline - capacity vs contracts
    • Russian export pipeline routes map
    • Russia East Pipeline Capacity vs Supply Potential
    • China Contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA & HoA)
    • Contracted LNG (GSAs + HOAs) by import company
    • Trade: Image 8
    • CNOOC contracted LNG by import project
    • CNOOC estimated price formula vs oil price (JCC)
    • PetroChina contracted LNG by import project
    • PetroChina estimated price formula vs oil price (JCC)
    • Sinopec contracted LNG by import project
    • Sinopec estimated price formula vs oil price (JCC)
    • Trade: Table 1
  • Infrastructure
    • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
    • Key regions/basin gas infrastructure* - under development and proposed
    • China existing and potential pipe imports
    • China regasification capacity by status
    • China contracted volumes vs regasification capacity
    • China LNG terminals by company and status
    • Total LNG capacity by company
    • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
    • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
    • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
  • Prices
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Table 2
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Prices: Image 4
    • Prices: Image 5
    • Regional WACOG vs. residential gas prices (Q1 2014)
    • East China WACOG vs oil products
    • Prices: Image 8
    • Prices: Image 9
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
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