Commodity market report
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43 Pages

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

The gloom surrounding the Chinese gas market in 2015 has been replaced with cautious optimism as a recovery in the oil price, lower domestic city gate prices and a series of national and local policies aimed at supporting gas have combined to improve the outlook through the mid-term at least. Year-on-year, official data is showing Chinese gas demand from December 2015 through to April 2016 up by 18%, while LNG imports over the same period increased by more than 20%.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 2.27 MB 43 Pages, 12 Tables, 32 Figures
  • China Gas Data.xls XLS - 1.88 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Introduction
    • Gas demand growth improving as oil prices recover…
    • …and supported by lower gas prices
    • The path to gas market liberalisation is unclear…
    • …but stalled progress on pipe imports, higher cost domestic gas and shale gas challenges are supporting a more bullish LNG demand outlook
    • Slower economic growth inevitably means lower long-term gas demand
    • Key data tables
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Gas sector policy & regulation
    • Regulatory structure
  • Demand
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power sector
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
    • Full details of the annual demand by province can be found in the China_Gas_Data.xls excel sheet, which can be downloaded from the Wood Mackenzie portal.
  • Supply
    • Domestic conventional supply
    • Unconventional supply: tight gas
    • Unconventional supply: CBM/CMM
    • Unconventional supply: SNG/coal-to-gas
    • Unconventional supply: shale gas
    • Appendix: Domestic supply
  • Costs
    • Supply cost stack
    • China supply cost by project – remaining breakeven vs import contract price
    • Weighted average cost of gas supply
  • Trade
    • Gas Imports - Pipeline
      • Central Asia Imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
      • Myanmar Imports
        • Russia East
        • Russia West
        • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
        • Gas Imports - LNG
          • LNG import contracts
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
        • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
      • Under development & proposed
        • Key domestic gas infrastructure - under development and proposed
        • Gas import infrastructure - LNG
          • China regasification capacity by status China regasification capacity by company
        • CNOOC
        • PetroChina
        • Sinopec
        • Private entrants
          • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
          • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal Non-NOC LNG capacity by terminal
          • China LNG terminal map
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Contracted Supply
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
  • Prices
    • Introduction
    • China's existing gas pricing structure
      • Gas pricing structure
      • Power pricing
      • Non-power pricing
        • Industry & Commercial
        • Residential
        • Transport
        • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q1 2016)
        • Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 44 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • China gas demand by province
    • China gas market balance
    • China power market balance
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Summary of 13th Five Year Plan energy targets
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
    • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Demand
    • Total China gas demand by sector
    • China demand by province
    • Industrial gas demand by province
    • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Table 2
  • Supply
    • China supply outlook by region/basin
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Image 4
  • Costs
    • China supply cost by project – full life breakeven vs import contract price
    • Costs: Image 2
    • China weighted average cost of gas (2016 terms)
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
    • Russian export pipeline routes map
    • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Shanghai (2016 terms)
    • China contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA, HOAs and MOUs)
    • Contracted LNG by import company
    • Contracted LNG by exporting country
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China Supply & Demand Balance
    • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Risks and uncertainties
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