Commodity Market Report

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

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18 July 2016

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

The gloom surrounding the Chinese gas market in 2015 has been replaced with cautious optimism as a recovery in the oil price, lower domestic city gate prices and a series of national and local policies aimed at supporting gas have combined to improve the outlook through the mid-term at least. Year-on-year, official data is showing Chinese gas demand from December 2015 through to April 2016 up by 18%, while LNG imports over the same period increased by more than 20%.

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • Gas demand growth improving as oil prices recover
    • and supported by lower gas prices
    • The path to gas market liberalisation is unclear
    • but stalled progress on pipe imports, higher cost domestic gas and shale gas challenges are supporting a more bullish LNG demand outlook
    • Slower economic growth inevitably means lower long-term gas demand
    • Key data tables
  • Economic outlook
    • Gas sector policy & regulation
    • Regulatory structure
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power sector
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
    • Full details of the annual demand by province can be found in the China_Gas_Data.xls excel sheet, which can be downloaded from the Wood Mackenzie portal.
    • Domestic conventional supply
    • Unconventional supply: tight gas
    • Unconventional supply: CBM/CMM
    • Unconventional supply: SNG/coal-to-gas
    • Unconventional supply: shale gas
    • Appendix: Domestic supply
    • Supply cost stack
    • China supply cost by project – remaining breakeven vs import contract price
    • Weighted average cost of gas supply
    • Gas Imports - Pipeline
      • Central Asia Imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
        • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
      • Myanmar Imports
        • Russia East
        • Russia West
        • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
        • Gas Imports - LNG
          • LNG import contracts
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
        • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
      • Under development & proposed
        • Key domestic gas infrastructure - under development and proposed
        • Gas import infrastructure - LNG
          • China regasification capacity by status China regasification capacity by company
        • CNOOC
        • PetroChina
        • Sinopec
        • Private entrants
          • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
          • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal Non-NOC LNG capacity by terminal
          • China LNG terminal map
    • Contracted Supply
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
    • Introduction
    • China's existing gas pricing structure
      • Gas pricing structure
      • Power pricing
      • Non-power pricing
        • Industry & Commercial
        • Residential
        • Transport
        • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q1 2016)
        • Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 44 images and tables including:

  • Economic Indicators
  • China Supply & Demand Balance
  • China gas demand by province
  • China gas market balance
  • China power market balance
  • Summary of 13th Five Year Plan energy targets
  • Policy and regulation: Table 2
  • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Total China gas demand by sector
  • China demand by province
  • Industrial gas demand by province
  • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Table 2
  • China supply outlook by region/basin
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Image 4
  • China supply cost by project – full life breakeven vs import contract price
  • Costs: Image 2
  • China weighted average cost of gas (2016 terms)
  • Costs: Table 1
  • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Trade: Image 1
  • Russian export pipeline routes map
  • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Shanghai (2016 terms)
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Prices: Image 1
  • China contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA, HOAs and MOUs)
  • Contracted LNG by import company
  • Contracted LNG by exporting country
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Infrastructure: Image 4
  • Infrastructure: Image 5
  • Infrastructure: Image 6
  • Infrastructure: Image 7

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China Gas Data.xls

    XLS 1.88 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 2.27 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 2.65 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 110.85 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 60.33 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 221.95 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 139.68 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 146.44 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 98.14 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 454.25 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 93.55 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 98.60 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 80.67 KB