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China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018

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27 July 2018

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018

Report summary

2017 saw China demonstrate the power of policy and marked great success in demand creation. Gas demand grew by 32 bcm, or 15% year-on-year. The increased use of gas has proved beneficial to air quality improvement. As China continues to look at clean energy including natural gas to achieve its long-term goal of improving living standards in the country, gas demand has bright growth prospects. Currently, gas accounts for 7% of China's total energy demand. We believe it will continue to gain share in the energy mix from that low base. In this update, we've revised up demand in 2020-2035 compared with our H2 2017 outlook, and extended the outlook to 2040.

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • Infrastructure development has become priority
    • Gas pricing reform moving in the right direction
    • Strong momentum in signing additional contracted LNG
    • Downside risks remain to Central Asian gas imports
    • Russian gas imports will be a stronger competitor against LNG in northern China
    • Domestic conventional gas production outlook upgraded in the long term
    • Unconventional gas development sees stronger momentum, yet challenges remain
    • Key data tables
  • Economic outlook
    • Gas sector policy and regulation
      • Pricing reform blueprint for gas and power
      • Winter Clean Heating Policy for Northern China
      • Annual guidance for energy sector development
      • NDRC merges residential and non-residential city-gate gas prices
    • Regulatory structure
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential and commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power sector
    • Appendix - Provincial demand data
    • Domestic conventional supply
    • Unconventional supply: tight gas
    • Unconventional supply: CBM and CMM
    • Unconventional supply: synthetic natural gas (coal-to-gas)
    • Unconventional supply: shale gas
    • Appendix: Domestic supply
    • Supply cost stack
    • Gas imports - pipeline
      • Central Asia imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
      • Myanmar Imports
      • Russian imports
        • Russia East
        • Russia West
        • Russia Far East
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development and proposed
    • Domestic gas infrastructure - underground storage facilities
    • Gas import infrastructure - LNG
      • CNOOC and its JVs
      • CNPC-PetroChina
      • Sinopec
      • Private entrants
        • China LNG terminal map
    • Contracted supply
    • LNG supply-demand balance
    • Introduction
      • City-gate gas pricing structure
      • The role of SHPGX in gas pricing
    • Prices at end user level
      • Power
      • Industry and commercial
      • Residential
      • Transport
    • Appendix - Provincial end user prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 36 images and tables including:

  • Economic Indicators
  • China Supply and Demand Balance
  • China gas demand by sector
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • China gas market balance
  • China power market balance
  • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Total China gas demand by sector
  • China demand by province
  • Industrial gas demand by province
  • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
  • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Winter heating gas demand by province
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Gas demand in power generation by region
  • Power generation mix
  • China supply outlook by region/basin
  • Supply: Image 2
  • China conventional/unconventional supply
  • Supply growth by region/basin
  • China supply cost by project – full life breakeven vs import contract price
  • China supply cost by basin - remaining breakeven plus tariff assumption to Shanghai
  • China underground gas storage map
  • LNG Receiving Capacity by Status and by Company, as of June 2018 (mmtpa)
  • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Additional key policy events in H1 2018
  • Summary of 13th five year plan energy targets
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (as of June 2018)
  • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Contracted LNG by import company
  • Contracted LNG by exporting country
  • Infrastructure: Image 3

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018

    PDF 3.63 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018

    ZIP 4.11 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 119.06 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 751.21 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 57.41 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 690.73 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 231.31 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 818.92 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 146.94 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 789.86 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 146.74 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 766.13 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 86.29 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 705.50 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 1.43 MB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 2.04 MB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 450.60 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 1.93 MB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 92.65 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 707.44 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 96.10 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 727.13 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 81.13 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 697.85 KB

  • Document

    China Gas Data H1 2018 updated.xls

    XLS 2.14 MB

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