Commodity market report
| |
120 Pages

China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013


China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

While we have downgraded our outlook for the Chinese economy, gas demand growth remains largely immune.

Key challenges remain: supply, development and gas affordability. China is inching closer to a pipeline deal with Russia and in H2 2013 Chinese LNG buyers, critical to many future projects, were among the most active globally.

The H2 2013 update of the China Gas & Power Service considers these developments and provides our latest forecasts for long-term supply and demand in China.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 61.71 MB 120 Pages, 30 Tables, 122 Figures
  • China Gas Data.xls XLS - 1.58 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Gas demand is broadly able to shrug off the impact of reduced GDP growth
    • Revised GDP assumptions materially impact power demand growth
    • Key facts and updates
      • China gas market balance
      • China power market balance
    • Recent Changes
      • Macro Assumptions
      • Demand
      • Supply and Infrastructure
      • Pricing
  • Economic outlook
    • China GDP Forecast
    • Oil Price Forecast
    • Coal Price Forecast
  • Policy and regulation
    • Regulatory structure
      • Regulatory environment
    • China gas sector policy & regulation
      • 12th Five-Year Plan
  • Demand
    • Introduction
    • Total primary energy mix
    • Gas demand overview
      • Key drivers of China gas demand forecast
      • Gas-to-power demand to see the largest incremental increase
      • Gas demand in coastal regions outstrips the national average
    • Industrial sector
      • Chemical & fertilisers sectors
      • Industrial oil product displacement
      • Industrial coal displacement
    • Residential & commercial sector
    • Transport sector
      • LNG vehicles will fuel near to medium term NGV growth
      • Key drivers of Chinese NGV markets
    • Power sector
  • Supply
    • Introduction
    • Domestic gas resources
      • Conventional gas resources
      • Unconventional gas resources
    • Resource classification
    • Corporate distribution of conventional domestic gas resources
    • Domestic gas production overview
    • Domestic supply by project/basin
      • Ordos basin
      • Sichuan basin
      • Tarim basin
      • Qaidam basin
        • Qaidam basin map
      • Songliao basin
        • basin key facts
      • Junggar basin
        • Junggar basin map
      • Pearl River Mouth Basin
      • North China – Bohai Bay Basin
    • Contracted/committed gas supply
    • Uncontracted gas supply by project/basin
    • Conventional yet-to-find gas supply by project/basin
    • Unconventional gas supply
      • Coal-to-gas (CTG)
      • Coal bed methane (CBM)
      • CBM supply by basin
        • Ordos basin
        • Qinshui basin
        • Junggar basin
        • Yunnan-Guizhou basin
      • Shale gas
      • Shale gas supply by basin
        • Sichuan basin
        • Tarim basin
        • Lacustrine shales (concept)
      • Tight gas
      • Tight gas supply by basin
        • Ordos basin
        • Sichuan basin
  • Trade
    • Gas imports - pipeline
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development & proposed
    • Gas imports infrastructure
      • Trans-Asia pipeline
      • Myanmar pipeline
      • Russia pipelines
      • CNOOC
      • PetroChina
      • Sinopec
      • Others
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Introduction
    • Contracted Supply
    • Domestic Supply Availability
      • China Supply-Demand Balance
      • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
        • Medium Term
        • Long Term
  • Prices
    • Introduction
    • China's new gas pricing structure
      • Gas pricing reform structure for incremental supply
      • The impact of gas price reform – positive for PetroChina
      • Transportation tariffs
    • Supply cost stack
      • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
      • Weighted average cost of gas supply
    • End-user pricing
      • Power
      • Non-power
        • Industry
        • Residential & commercial
        • Transport
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 152 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key facts
    • China gas demand by sector
    • China gas demand by province
    • Executive summary: Table 4
    • China power available capacity
    • Executive summary: Table 6
    • Key changes to regulation and policy in H2 2013 update
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Changes to China Coal Price Forecast (H2 2013 vs H12013)
    • China GDP Growth (H2 13 vs H1 13)
    • China GDP by Region (H1 13 vs H2 13)
    • Executive summary: Image 5
    • China Gas Demand by Sector Differences (H2 13 v H1 13)
    • China Installed Capacity (H2 2013 vs H1 2013)
    • China Power Generation (H2 2013 vs H1 2013)
    • *China Conventional Supply Outlook (H1 2013 v H2 2013)
    • China Unconventional Supply Outlook (H1 2013 v H2 2013)
    • China LNG Supply Outlook (H2 13 v H1 13)
    • China Pipeline Imports Outlook (H2 13 v H1 13)
    • China Weighted Average Cost of Gas (H2 2013 v H1 2013)
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Contribution to National GDP by Region
    • Contribution to National Population by Region
    • Real GDP Growth by Region
    • Contribution to National GDP by Top Provinces
    • Province Rank by GDP in 2012 (RMB billion)
    • Urbanisation and GDP per Capita in 2012 (RMB)
    • Economic outlook: Image 8
    • Power Coal Price (Spot) Assumption
    • Power Coal Price (Contract) Assumption
  • Policy and regulation
    • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
    • China gas sector policy & regulation
    • Summary of 12th Five Year Plan energy targets
  • Demand
    • Total primary energy mix by fuel
    • Comparison of Wood Mackenzie and official forecasts
    • Total China gas demand by sector
    • China gas demand by province
    • China 2013 gas demand distribution map
    • Total industrial gas demand by provinces
    • Gas demand in chemical sector by provinces
    • Industrial energy demand by fuel type
    • Gas vs. oil product demand in industry
    • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
    • Number of household connected to gas by province
    • Transport gas demand by province
    • Number of natural gas vehicles
    • Gas demand in power by region
  • Supply
    • Conventional domestic gas resources by region/basin
    • Remaining gas resources (conventional commercial and technical) by region/basin
    • Resources grouping by NOCs/IOCs
    • Supply: Image 4
    • China supply outlook by region/basin
    • % Share by region/basin
    • China conventional/unconventional supply
    • Supply growth by region/basin
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Ordos contracted gas by company
    • Ordos basin total gas production
    • Ordos basin map
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Sichuan contracted gas by company
    • Sichuan basin total gas production
    • Sichuan basin map
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Tarim basin contracted gas production by company
    • Tarim basin total gas production
    • Tarim basin map
    • Qaidam basin key facts
    • Qaidam contracted gas by company
    • Qaidam basin total gas production
    • Supply: Image 20
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Songliao basin contracted production by company
    • Songliao basin total gas production
    • Songliao basin map
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Junggar contracted gas by company
    • Junggar basin total gas production
    • Supply: Image 26
    • Supply: Table 7
    • PRMB contracted gas production by company
    • PRMB total gas production
    • Supply: Image 29
    • North China – Bohai Bay Basin key facts
    • North China – Bohai Bay Basin contracted production by company
    • North China – Bohai Bay Basin total gas production
    • North China – Bohai Bay Basin map
    • Key contracted gas supply by project/basin
    • Uncontracted supply potential by project/basin
    • Supply: Table 11
    • China coal-to-gas supply by project
    • China CTG breakeven vs competing gas supply options (2013 terms)
    • China CBM licenses and pipeline infrastructure
    • China CBM production forecast by basin
    • Key active shale gas blocks
    • China shale gas basin map
    • Sichuan basin shale gas outlook
    • Sichuan basin shale gas production
    • Sichuan basin shale gas well count
    • Tarim basin shale gas outlook
    • Tarim basin shale gas production
    • Tarim basin shale gas well count
    • China shale gas production forecast by basin
    • China tight gas production forecast by basin
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
    • Trade: Image 2
    • Trade: Image 3
    • Trade: Image 4
    • Trade: Image 5
    • Trade: Image 6
    • Contracted LNG (GSAs + HOAs) by import company
    • Contracted LNG (GSAs + HOAs) by exporting country
    • CNOOC contracted LNG by import project
    • CNOOC estimated price formula vs oil price (JCC)
    • PetroChina contracted LNG by import project
    • PetroChina estimated price formula vs oil price (JCC)
    • Trade: Image 13
    • Sinopec contracted LNG by import project
    • Sinopec estimated price formula vs oil price (JCC)
    • Trade: Table 1
  • Infrastructure
    • Key domestic gas infrastructure – existing
    • Key regional/basin gas infrastructure* – under development and proposed
    • China existing and potential pipe imports
    • China regasification capacity by status
    • China contracted volumes vs regasification capacity
    • China LNG terminals by company and status
    • Total LNG capacity by company
    • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
    • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
    • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
    • China LNG terminal map
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Contracted Supply vs Demand
    • Forecast Domestic Supply Availability & Contracted Imports vs Demand
    • China Supply & Demand Balance
    • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
    • LNG Demand by Province
  • Prices
    • New China City Gate Gas Prices (2013 Real)
    • China post-reform netback gas pricing structure
    • East China Reformed City Gate Price July 2013
    • Reformed Existing vs Incremental Price Split 2013
    • East China Reformed City Gate Price vs Imports
    • East China Reformed City Gate Price vs. WM WACOG
    • Key pipeline transportation tariffs Q4 2013 (US$/mmbtu)*
    • China supply cost by project (US$/mmbtu 2013 terms)
    • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into shanghai (2013 terms)
    • Assumed East Siberia contract price into Beijing (2013 terms)
    • China weighted average cost of gas
    • Regional WACOG vs. residential gas prices (Q4 2013)
    • East China WACOG vs oil products
    • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q4 2013)
    • Comparative industrial user gas prices (Q4 2013)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.