Commodity market report

China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

Our H2 2014 update has been influenced by both structural changes such as China s economic transformation and the consequences of China's evolving environmental policies and cyclical events such as the rapid fall in oil prices and the outperformance of hydro.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    China Gas Data.xls

    XLS 1.92 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 2.47 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 2.86 MB

  • Document

    Appendix - China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014.pdf

    PDF 7.78 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 106.06 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 57.72 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 215.94 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 150.18 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 433.27 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 1.37 MB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 472.80 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 93.23 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 101.04 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 80.35 KB

Table of contents

    • Softening demand in the next 3-4 years
    • The direction of domestic gas prices a key uncertainty in 2015
    • LNG demand is facing growing pains, particularly through the mid-term
    • Modest progress on shale, but imports to keep rising in the long term
  • Economic outlook
    • Gas sector policy & regulation
    • Key policy events in 2014
    • Regulatory structure
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power Sector
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
    • Summary
      • Conventional gas resources
    • Supply cost stack
    • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
    • Weighted average cost of gas supply
    • Appendix: Domestic supply by project/basin
    • Contracted Supply
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 47 images and tables including:

Images

  • China Supply & Demand Balance
  • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Total China gas demand by sector
  • China demand by province
  • Industry fuel gas demand by province
  • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
  • Industrial energy demand by fuel type
  • Gas vs. oil product demand in industry
  • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
  • Number of population connected to gas by province
  • Winter heating gas demand by province
  • Roadway and Waterway gas demand
  • Inland riverway and domestic coastal gas demand
  • China supply cost by project (US$/mmbtu 2014 terms)
  • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Beijing (2014 terms)
  • China weighted average cost of gas (2014 terms)
  • Regional WACOG vs. residential gas and LPG prices (Q4 2014)
  • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Conventional domestic gas resources by region/basin
  • China supply outlook by region/basin
  • % Share by region/basin
  • China conventional/unconventional supply
  • Supply growth by region/basin
  • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
  • Russian export pipeline routes map
  • Contracted LNG by import company
  • Contracted LNG by exporting country
  • LNG contracts (SPAs, HOAs and MOUs) vs regasification capacity
  • China regasification capacity by status
  • China regasification capacity by company
  • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
  • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
  • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
  • Other companies LNG capacity by terminal
  • China LNG terminal map
  • Two Scenarios comparison for Shanghai Citygate prices - Business as usual vs. Oil dropped case
  • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q4 2014)

Tables

  • Economic Indicators
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Executive summary: Table 3
  • Summary of 12th Five Year Plan energy targets
  • Key policy events in 2014
  • Demand: Table 1
  • China Contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA, HOAs and MOUs)
  • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
  • Key regions/basin gas infrastructure* - under development and proposed

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