Commodity market report
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42 Pages

China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

Our H2 2014 update has been influenced by both structural changes such as China’s economic transformation and the consequences of China's evolving environmental policies, and cyclical events such as the rapid fall in oil prices and the outperformance of hydro.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 2.47 MB 42 Pages, 10 Tables, 37 Figures
  • China Gas Data.xls XLS - 1.92 MB
  • Appendix - China gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014.pdf PDF - 7.78 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Softening demand in the next 3-4 years
    • The direction of domestic gas prices a key uncertainty in 2015
    • LNG demand is facing growing pains, particularly through the mid-term
    • Modest progress on shale, but imports to keep rising in the long term
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Gas sector policy & regulation
    • Key policy events in 2014
    • Regulatory structure
  • Demand
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential & commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
    • Power Sector
    • Appendix - Provincial Demand Data
  • Supply
    • Summary
    • Domestic gas resources
      • Conventional gas resources
    • Supply cost stack
    • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
    • Weighted average cost of gas supply
    • Appendix: Domestic supply by project/basin
  • Trade
    • Gas Imports - Pipeline
      • Turkmenistan
      • Uzbekistan
      • Kazakhstan
    • Gas Imports - LNG
      • LNG import contracts
  • Infrastructure
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development & proposed
      • Gas Import infrastructure - LNG
      • CNOOC
      • PetroChina
      • Sinopec
      • Private entrants
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Contracted Supply
    • LNG Supply-Demand Balance
  • Prices
    • Introduction
      • Gas pricing structure for incremental supply
    • End-user pricing
      • Power
      • Non-power
        • Industry
        • Residential & commercial
        • Transport
        • Appendix - Provincial End User Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 47 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Executive summary: Table 2
    • Executive summary: Table 3
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic Indicators
  • Policy and regulation
    • Summary of 12th Five Year Plan energy targets
    • Key policy events in 2014
    • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Demand
    • Total China gas demand by sector
    • China demand by province
    • Industry fuel gas demand by province
    • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
    • Industrial energy demand by fuel type
    • Gas vs. oil product demand in industry
    • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
    • Number of population connected to gas by province
    • Winter heating gas demand by province
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Roadway and Waterway gas demand
    • Inland riverway and domestic coastal gas demand
  • Supply
    • Conventional domestic gas resources by region/basin
    • China supply outlook by region/basin
    • % Share by region/basin
    • China conventional/unconventional supply
    • Supply growth by region/basin
    • China supply cost by project (US$/mmbtu 2014 terms)
    • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Beijing (2014 terms)
    • China weighted average cost of gas (2014 terms)
    • Regional WACOG vs. residential gas and LPG prices (Q4 2014)
  • Trade
    • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
    • Russian export pipeline routes map
    • China Contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPA, HOAs and MOUs)
    • Contracted LNG by import company
    • Contracted LNG by exporting country
  • Infrastructure
    • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
    • Key regions/basin gas infrastructure* - under development and proposed
    • LNG contracts (SPAs, HOAs and MOUs) vs regasification capacity
    • China regasification capacity by status
    • China regasification capacity by company
    • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
    • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
    • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
    • Other companies LNG capacity by terminal
    • China LNG terminal map
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China Supply & Demand Balance
    • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Prices
    • Two Scenarios comparison for Shanghai Citygate prices - Business as usual vs. Oil dropped case
    • End-user prices vs. competing fuel (Q4 2014)
  • Risks and uncertainties
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