In 2021, the pandemic has been pushed aside as the main uncertainty in the market in favour of the surge of focus on the energy transition. In response to this, the long-term oil price forecast is revised downward in this outlook. High European gas hub prices will persist until summer 2022. Rapid LNG demand growth in Asia, seasonally low storage inventories and domestic supply disruptions offer little chance of relieving winter-balance tightness. Several factors have disrupted thermal coal supply this year, such as coronavirus measures, wet weather, mine accidents, licence disputes, protests and strikes. The result? Thermal coal prices are soaring in 2021 to levels not seen in more than a decade. Fit-for-55 package confirms carbon market strengthening. A considerable escalation of emissions prices has been observed through 2021, with EUAs rising steadily to a year-to-date high of over 58 EUR/tCO2 in early July.