Commodity Market Report

Europe energy prices

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05 August 2021

Europe energy prices

Report summary

In 2021, the pandemic has been pushed aside as the main uncertainty in the market in favour of the surge of focus on the energy transition. In response to this, the long-term oil price forecast is revised downward in this outlook. High European gas hub prices will persist until summer 2022. Rapid LNG demand growth in Asia, seasonally low storage inventories and domestic supply disruptions offer little chance of relieving winter-balance tightness. Several factors have disrupted thermal coal supply this year, such as coronavirus measures, wet weather, mine accidents, licence disputes, protests and strikes. The result? Thermal coal prices are soaring in 2021 to levels not seen in more than a decade. Fit-for-55 package confirms carbon market strengthening. A considerable escalation of emissions prices has been observed through 2021, with EUAs rising steadily to a year-to-date high of over 58 EUR/tCO2 in early July.

Table of contents

  • Global supply: Emphasis on long-term downgrades
  • Outturn market trends and short-term expectations
  • Energy policy development and strengthening of the ETS

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Brent oil price forecast
  • Global gas price forecast
  • Coal prices CFR ARA
  • Cumulative EUA balance - post-reserve operation
  • Carbon price (EUA) forecast - comparison of current and previous forecast
  • Annual power prices (market average)
  • European GDP growth

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe Energy Prices 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 1.01 MB

  • Document

    Europe energy prices

    PDF 1.85 MB