Market fundamentals are set to tighten as coal retirals support an additional 19 bcm of gas demand by 2020. Indigenous supply is set to decline over the same period, more so than our previous update, as we incorporate further restrictions on Groningen and disruptions to the Danish Tyra field. Pipeline imports from Norway, Algeria and Russia have all increased in 2016 and future pipeline imports will remain resilient. The stage is already set for a competition between low cost Russian gas and cash expensive US LNG. US LNG will be at the margin in Europe, forcing the shut-in of some US LNG export capacity.