Europe gas and LNG imports and contracts long-term outlook H2 2018

Europe’s reliance on imports continues to rise. In 2018, Europe imported close to 6 bcm more than in 2017, 36% of which was from Russia, driving prices above traditional oil-indexed levels for the second year running. As demand remains resilient and indigenous production continues to fall, we estimate Europe will need to import an additional 71 bcm by 2040 compared to 2018. Over the next three years, Europe will benefit from a rebalancing of the global LNG market, resulting in more LNG available for imports. There is now additional market space in Europe, for both incremental LNG and Russian pipeline imports. We see the scope for new regas capacity in Europe with LNG accounting for over a quarter of the European market by 2025, up from 13% in 2018. Uncertainties remain over the level of Ukraine transit volumes once Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream start, but further pipeline infrastructure or Ukraine transit will be required as Europe's dependency on Russian imports reaches over 40%.