Commodity market report

Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q1 2017

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Report summary

In 2017 LNG imports will increase over 50% on 2016 levels. However declining indigenous production will largely counter this growth and sustain Europe's requirement for Russian gas imports. Our gas price forecast averages US$5.8/mmbtu close to an oil indexed proxy. The outlook changes in 2018 as gas prices are set to fall with a price floor being set by the cash cost of US LNG imports. In power the relief from supply constraints raised in the latter part of 2016 by French nuclear outages reducing coal prices and renewable production will see German base load power prices average 36.8/MWh in 2017. Although this price is above 2016 levels spreads available to coal and gas generators will be less attractive this year. Gas into power will be more attractive in the UK where we expect base load power prices to average 45.4/MWh ( 53.1/MWh) in 2017. This report includes an outlook for European gas balances and forecast North West European gas and power prices out to Q4 2018.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    European gas and power short term price outlook Q1 2017.xls

    XLS 448.00 KB

  • Document

    Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q1 2017

    PDF 337.47 KB

  • Document

    Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q1 2017

    ZIP 465.82 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

Images

  • Gas Prices
  • Economics of US LNG to Europe
  • Storage inventories*
  • Russian gas imports
  • European base load power prices
  • UK base load prices - year-on-year comparison
  • Clean spreads (base load) - UK
  • Clean spreads (base load) - Germany

Tables

  • Key markets data

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