Commodity Market Report

Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2018

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22 May 2018

Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2018

Report summary

Gas demand to the end of 2018 will drop compared to 2017; H1 2018 demand will be fairly flat, reaching 210 bcm, up 0.9% compared to same period a year earlier, but H2 demand will drop 5.8% to 173 bcm. While Norwegian flows will remain steady into 2018, Russian flows are forecast down by 4.7%. As the market slides into oversupply during the summer of 2019, with LNG availability to Europe increases during the year, Russia and Norway will show further restraint whilst maintaining market share. GB power prices will hit a 10-year high in 2018, retaining a substantial premium over continental Europe, as higher carbon and gas prices raise our outlook substantially. In Germany, the economics of gas will face substantial challenges through 2018, recovering somewhat in 2019 as gas price changes displace less efficient coal-fired generators. This report includes an outlook for European gas balances and forecast Northwest European gas and power prices out to Q4 2019.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Storage inventories
  • Russian gas imports
  • Gas Prices
  • Key markets data
  • European base load power prices
  • UK base load prices - year-on-year comparison
  • Clean spreads (base load) - UK
  • DE base load prices - year-on-year comparison
  • Clean spreads (base load) - Germany

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2018

    PDF 827.79 KB

  • Document

    Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q2 2018

    ZIP 943.82 KB

  • Document

    European gas and power short term price outlook Q2 2018.xls

    XLS 522.50 KB

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