Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q3 2016

Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q3 2016

Report summary

European gas prices are expected to remain soft for the rest of 2016. Prices will strengthen in Q1 2017 supported by reduced LNG imports (compared to Q4 2016) and the consequent requirement of Russian gas above ACQ levels. Tight plant margins and rising gas prices will revive the economics of the UK’s remaining coal-fired power over this period. However, coal’s reversal of fortunes will not last long. A drop in summer gas prices –as higher LNG imports loosen the market – will put UK coal under a similar degree of pressure as it was in 2016.

This report includes an outlook for European gas balances and forecast North West European gas and power prices out to Q3 2017.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • European gas and power markets short-term outlook Q3 2016 PDF - 341.67 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 9 Figures
  • European gas and power short term price outlook Q3 2016.xls XLS - 505.00 KB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Short Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this short term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Introduction
      • European gas fundamentals
      • Gas demand
      • Gas supply
      • Flexible supply
  • Prices
    • European gas prices (NBP and TTF)
    • European power prices
      • UK coal returns to market in Q1 2017
      • German gas-fired plants slip back below coal in the merit order

In this report there are 10 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Key markets data
    • Storage inventories*
    • Russian imports
  • Prices
    • Gas prices
    • Gas demand response* - coal to gas switching
    • Ecomonics of US LNG to Europe
    • UK base load power prices
    • UK clean spark spreads (CPS emissions costs)
    • Base load power price - Germany, Netherlands and UK
    • German clean spark spreads (ETS emissions costs)
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