Europe gas and power markets short-term outlook Q3 2017
LNG imports into Europe are increasing, a trend that needs to continue with all the new global LNG supply coming on-stream. US LNG offtakers will turn to the European market on a greater scale to place volumes. However, we expect Russia to defend market share, resulting in some US LNG shuts-in and dragging NBP as low as US$3.5/mmbtu in 2019. Through 2018 and 2019, weakening gas prices will lend increased support to the economics of CCGT-based generators. Older, less efficient coal-fired plants will look increasingly unattractive while even the most modern parts in the German coal fleet will be threatened as gas shapes up to be a real competitor for market share. This report includes an outlook for European gas balances and forecast North West European gas and power prices out to Q4 2019.