LNG imports into Europe are increasing a trend that needs to continue with all the new global LNG supply coming on stream. US LNG offtakers will turn to the European market on a greater scale to place volumes. However we expect Russia to defend market share resulting in some US LNG shuts in and dragging NBP as low as US$3.5/mmbtu in 2019. Through 2018 and 2019 weakening gas prices will lend increased support to the economics of CCGT based generators. Older less efficient coal fired plants will look increasingly unattractive while even the most modern parts in the German coal fleet will be threatened as gas shapes up to be a real competitor for market share. This report includes an outlook for European gas balances and forecast North West European gas and power prices out to Q4 2019.