Commodity market report
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36 Pages

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

The European gas market is going through profound changes, driven by policy decisions and a backdrop of challenging market fundamentals, including the recent fall in oil price. The on-going Russia-Ukraine crisis adds further uncertainty. How these changes play out will dictate how the European market - and ultimately prices - will evolve.

Wood Mackenzie believes that a significant tipping point has been reached, whereby Russia is now incentivised to pursue market share in European gas markets. This is due to a combination of greater LNG supply availability to Europe, lower coal prices and a higher US gas price.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 974.74 KB 36 Pages, 3 Tables, 30 Figures
  • Europe gas markets long-term outlook - H1 2016.xls XLS - 1.55 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Policy and regulation
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
    • Dimension 2: A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets, but not soon
      • Renewable energy targets
      • CO2 emission targets
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, Innovation and Competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
  • Demand
    • Power sector
    • Non-power sectors
      • Industrial sector
      • Residential/commercial sector
      • Other sectors
      • LNG marine bunker sector
  • Supply
    • Groningen production restrictions constrain European supply in medium term
    • In the long-term European shale disappoints and decline accelerates
  • Infrastructure
    • LNG import infrastructure
      • Existing infrastructure
      • Projects under construction
      • Pre-FID projects
      • Other Services
    • Piped import infrastructure
    • Russia
      • Southern route
      • Nord Stream expansion
      • Others
    • North Africa
      • Galsi
      • Green Stream expansion
      • Southern Corridor
  • Contracts
    • LNG
      • US LNG deals
      • Other LNG deals
      • Put option deals
    • Piped
  • Costs
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances
    • Flow dynamics – Russia
    • Flow dynamics – Norway
    • Flow dynamics – Algeria
    • Flow dynamics – Southern Corridor
    • Flow dynamics – LNG
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 33 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2016 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy Union package
    • EU Energy Security Package
    • EU Third Energy Package
    • EU climate-energy targets
    • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU 28
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector
    • Capacity growth by fuel*
    • Power generation mix*
  • Supply
    • Domestic gas supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Key infrastructure
    • Regas capacity by status
    • Regas capacity and contracted volumes
    • Pipe capacity
    • Pipe capacity and contracted volumes
  • Contracts
  • Costs
    • NW Europe delivered cost curve
    • Southern Europe delivered cost curve
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Europe supply-demand gap
    • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Europe demand and supply mix
    • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
    • Russia contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
    • Russia flows by major pipelines into Europe
    • Norway contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
    • Norway flows by major pipelines into Europe
    • Algeria contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
    • Algeria flows by major pipelines into Europe
    • Turkey demand and supply (including transit)
    • Southern Corridor flows (transiting Turkey)
    • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
    • Total LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
    • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
    • Total LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Risks and uncertainties
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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.