Commodity Market Report

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

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19 July 2016

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

The European gas market is going through profound changes, driven by policy decisions and a backdrop of challenging market fundamentals, including the recent fall in oil price. The on-going Russia-Ukraine crisis adds further uncertainty. How these changes play out will dictate how the European market - and ultimately prices - will evolve. Wood Mackenzie believes that a significant tipping point has been reached, whereby Russia is now incentivised to pursue market share in European gas markets. This is due to a combination of greater LNG supply availability to Europe, lower coal prices and a higher US gas price.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply
    • Dimension 2: A fully integrated internal energy market
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3. Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets, but not soon
      • Renewable energy targets
      • CO2 emission targets
    • Dimension 4. Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5. Research, Innovation and Competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives
    • Power sector
    • Non-power sectors
      • Industrial sector
      • Residential/commercial sector
      • Other sectors
      • LNG marine bunker sector
    • Groningen production restrictions constrain European supply in medium term
    • In the long-term European shale disappoints and decline accelerates
    • LNG import infrastructure
      • Existing infrastructure
      • Projects under construction
      • Pre-FID projects
      • Other Services
    • Piped import infrastructure
    • Russia
      • Southern route
      • Nord Stream expansion
      • Others
    • North Africa
      • Galsi
      • Green Stream expansion
      • Southern Corridor
    • LNG
      • US LNG deals
      • Other LNG deals
      • Put option deals
    • Piped
  • Costs
    • Supply-demand balances
    • Flow dynamics – Russia
    • Flow dynamics – Norway
    • Flow dynamics – Algeria
    • Flow dynamics – Southern Corridor
    • Flow dynamics – LNG
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 33 images and tables including:

  • Q1 2016 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Energy Union package
  • Gas demand by sector
  • Domestic gas supply
  • Key infrastructure
  • NW Europe delivered cost curve
  • Southern Europe delivered cost curve
  • Capacity growth by fuel*
  • Power generation mix*
  • Regas capacity by status
  • Regas capacity and contracted volumes
  • Pipe capacity
  • Pipe capacity and contracted volumes
  • Europe supply-demand gap
  • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
  • Europe demand and supply mix
  • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
  • Russia contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Russia flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Norway contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Norway flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Algeria contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Algeria flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Turkey demand and supply (including transit)
  • Southern Corridor flows (transiting Turkey)
  • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
  • Total LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
  • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Total LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • EU Energy Security Package
  • EU Third Energy Package
  • EU climate-energy targets
  • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU 28

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.55 MB

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 974.74 KB

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.17 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 80.62 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 198.96 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 125.95 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 101.69 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 522.79 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 93.80 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 86.18 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 168.11 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 57.03 KB

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