Despite a return to demand growth and a disappointing outlook for production Europe remains oversupplied through the medium term. Fundamentals of power generation support demand whilst restrictions at Groningen and declines elsewhere cut the supply outlook. However piped exports from Russia Norway and Algeria are reaching record levels. Even in the face of a low price environment we believe all three will continue to pursue market share to the mid 2020s. Through the same period the availability of LNG to Europe surges; forcing European prices down to the cash cost of US LNG.