Commodity market report
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36 Pages

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share

Report summary

Despite a return to demand growth and a disappointing outlook for production, Europe remains oversupplied through the medium-term. Fundamentals of power generation support demand whilst restrictions at Groningen and declines elsewhere cut the supply outlook. However, piped exports from Russia, Norway, and Algeria are reaching record levels. Even in the face of a low price environment, we believe all three will continue to pursue market share to the mid-2020s. Through the same period, the availability of LNG to Europe surges; forcing European prices down to the cash cost of US LNG.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share PDF - 1.02 MB 36 Pages, 4 Tables, 31 Figures
  • Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017.xls XLS - 1.33 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Europe's demand growth won't halt oversupply…
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • Power sector
    • Non-power sectors
      • Industrial sector
      • Residential/commercial sector
      • Other sectors
      • Road transport
      • Domestic navigation bunkers
      • International LNG marine bunkers
  • Supply
    • Groningen production restrictions tighten once more. Long-term upside is hard to find
    • Outlook for European unconventionals remains pessimistic
  • Infrastructure
    • LNG import infrastructure
      • Existing infrastructure
      • Near-term developments (2017-2018)
      • Longer-term prospects
      • Other Services
        • LNG services
        • Piped import infrastructure
          • TurkStream
          • Nord Stream 2
          • Southern Corridor (TANAP / TAP)
        • Gas storage infrastructure
          • Existing infrastructure
          • Projects under construction or planned
  • Contracts
    • LNG
      • US LNG deals
      • Put option deals
      • Swap agreements
      • Other LNG deals
    • Piped
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances
      • Europe supply-demand gap
      • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Flow dynamics – Russia
    • Flow dynamics – Norway
    • Flow dynamics – Algeria
    • Flow dynamics – Southern Corridor
    • Flow dynamics – LNG
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Policy and regulation
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply and solidarity
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3: Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets
      • Clean Energy for all Europeans
      • Renewable energy targets
      • Strengthening the EU emissions market
    • Dimension 4: Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5: Research, Innovation and Competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives

In this report there are 35 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2017 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Prices
    • Gas price forecast
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector
    • Capacity growth by fuel*
    • Power generation mix*
  • Supply
    • Domestic gas supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Key infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
    • Europe demand and supply mix
    • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
    • Russia contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
    • Russia flows by major pipelines into Europe
    • Norway contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
    • Norway flows by major pipelines into Europe
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 10
    • Turkey supply (including transit) and demand
    • Southern Corridor flows (transiting Turkey)
    • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
    • Total LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
    • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
    • Total LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Policy and regulation
    • Energy Union package
    • EU Energy Security Package
    • EU Third Energy Package
    • EU climate-energy targets
    • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU 28
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