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Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share

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11 August 2017

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share

Report summary

Despite a return to demand growth and a disappointing outlook for production, Europe remains oversupplied through the medium-term. Fundamentals of power generation support demand whilst restrictions at Groningen and declines elsewhere cut the supply outlook. However, piped exports from Russia, Norway, and Algeria are reaching record levels. Even in the face of a low price environment, we believe all three will continue to pursue market share to the mid-2020s. Through the same period, the availability of LNG to Europe surges; forcing European prices down to the cash cost of US LNG.

Table of contents

    • Europe's demand growth won't halt oversupply
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Power sector
    • Non-power sectors
      • Industrial sector
      • Residential/commercial sector
      • Other sectors
      • Road transport
      • Domestic navigation bunkers
      • International LNG marine bunkers
    • Groningen production restrictions tighten once more. Long-term upside is hard to find
    • Outlook for European unconventionals remains pessimistic
    • LNG import infrastructure
      • Existing infrastructure
      • Near-term developments (2017-2018)
      • Longer-term prospects
      • Other Services
        • LNG services
        • Piped import infrastructure
          • TurkStream
          • Nord Stream 2
          • Southern Corridor (TANAP / TAP)
        • Gas storage infrastructure
          • Existing infrastructure
          • Projects under construction or planned
    • LNG
      • US LNG deals
      • Put option deals
      • Swap agreements
      • Other LNG deals
    • Piped
    • Supply-demand balances
      • Europe supply-demand gap
      • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Flow dynamics – Russia
    • Flow dynamics – Norway
    • Flow dynamics – Algeria
    • Flow dynamics – Southern Corridor
    • Flow dynamics – LNG
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply and solidarity
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3: Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets
      • Clean Energy for all Europeans
      • Renewable energy targets
      • Strengthening the EU emissions market
    • Dimension 4: Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5: Research, Innovation and Competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • Q1 2017 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Gas price forecast
  • Gas demand by sector
  • Domestic gas supply
  • Key infrastructure
  • Energy Union package
  • Capacity growth by fuel*
  • Power generation mix*
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Russia contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Russia flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Norway contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Norway flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 10
  • Turkey supply (including transit) and demand
  • Southern Corridor flows (transiting Turkey)
  • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
  • Total LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
  • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Total LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Europe demand and supply mix
  • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
  • EU Energy Security Package
  • EU Third Energy Package
  • EU climate-energy targets
  • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU 28
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 4
  • Infrastructure: Image 5
  • Infrastructure: Image 6
  • Infrastructure: Image 7

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share

    PDF 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.33 MB

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017: suppliers chase market share

    ZIP 1.33 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.77 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.20 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 92.77 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 95.59 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 86.28 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 129.22 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 131.42 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 101.58 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 99.89 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 530.02 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 558.41 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 105.25 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 89.08 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 169.66 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 170.44 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 57.78 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 78.33 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 211.25 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 246.93 KB

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