Commodity market report
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97 Pages

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014


Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

The European gas market is going through profound changes, driven by policy decisions and a backdrop of challenging market fundamentals, including the recent fall in oil, with the on-going Russia-Ukraine crisis adding further uncertainty. How these changes play out will dictate how the European market - and ultimately prices - will evolve.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 6.61 MB 97 Pages, 14 Tables, 94 Figures
  • Europe Gas Markets H2 2014.xls XLS - 2.19 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Recent trends and outlook
    • European gas demand forecast summary
      • Power Sector
        • Industrial Sector
        • Residential/commercial sector
      • Other sector
      • LNG marine bunkers
  • Infrastructure
    • Piped import infrastructure
      • Planned pipeline projects - Russia
        • Nord Stream III & IV
        • Rationale and drivers
        • Outlook
        • South Stream
        • Rationale and drivers
      • Planned pipeline projects - North Africa
        • Algeria - GALSI
        • Rationale and drivers
        • Key challenges and uncertainties
        • Recent developments
        • Libya - Green Stream expansion
        • Project Background
        • Southern Corridor projects
        • Key challenges and uncertainties
        • LNG import infrastructure
          • Existing infrastructure
          • Projects under construction
          • Pre-FID projects
          • Other Services
  • Supply
    • Indigenous production
      • Dutch supply has driven variations in the last few years, rise in UK/Romania production supports some medium-term increases
      • Longer-term decline in conventional production is tempered by emergence of shale gas, but risk is to the downside
    • Russia
      • Recent trends
      • Export potential
      • Outlook
      • Export potential
        • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply, but other investments are being re-evaluated
        • Exploration success (including Barents Sea) is required to sustain production longer-term
      • Strategy
    • Algeria
      • Recent trends
        • Algerian export to Europe
      • Export potential
      • Strategy
    • Libya
      • Recent trends
        • Libya pipe export to Europe
      • Export potential
      • Outlook
      • Strategy
  • Contracts
    • Gas contracting trends – piped gas
      • Contract changes in 2009
        • More recent contract changes
        • New contract activity
      • Gas contracting trends - LNG
  • Prices
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Europe supply mix
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Policy and regulation
    • Competition
      • Third Package implementation
    • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Environment
      • The formation of post-2020 policy - targets for 2030
      • Renewable energy targets
      • Progress towards NREAP targets for selected member states in electricity sector
    • Security
      • State aid and security of electricity supply
    • EU emissions trading and price forecast
      • Carbon price background
      • Emissions trading scheme and energy policy development
        • 2030 targets confirmed
        • A central role for emissions trading
      • Market balance and the influence of supply-side adjustments
        • ETS emissions, cap and allowance supply (prior to market reserve)
        • ETS allowance supply - post-market reserve
        • Cumulative allowance balance - before and after the market reserve
      • Emissions price forecast
        • Carbon (EUA) price forecast
        • Carbon price and cost of fuel switching in the power sector
        • Power sector carbon emissions with and without emissions pricing
      • Uncertainties
  • Economic outlook
    • Q3 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2035)
    • Gas price forecast
    • Carbon (EUA) price forecast

In this report there are 108 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Gas demand into power by sub region*
    • Change in gas into power demand compared to 2015
    • Capacity growth by fuel for Europe
    • Power generation mix for Europe
    • Industrial demand by sub region*
    • Change in industrial demand compared to 2015*
    • Residential/ commercial demand by sub region*
    • Change in res/ com demand compared to 2015*
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Pipe capacity
    • Pipe capacity and contracted volumes
    • Infrastructure: Table 1
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
    • Infrastructure: Table 3
    • Planned pipeline projects - Southern Corridor
    • Infrastructure: Table 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • European unconventional gas outlook
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Map – Western Russia
    • Total pipe imports into Europe by destination
    • Pipe imports into Europe
    • Indigenous production-potential
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Supply: Image 8
    • Supply: Image 9
    • Indigenous production-potential
    • Pipe export potential vs. contracts vs. export capacity
    • Map - Algeria
    • Supply: Image 13
    • Indigenous production-potential
    • Pipe export potential to Europe vs. contracts vs. export capacity
    • Map – Libya
    • Supply: Image 17
    • Supply: Image 18
    • Supply: Image 19
    • Map – Southern Corridor
    • Supply: Image 21
    • Supply: Image 22
    • Supply: Image 23
    • Supply: Image 24
    • Existing Atlantic/ME LNG liquefaction flows
    • Under construction and New Atlantic/ME LNG liquefaction flows
    • Global LNG Supply and non European LNG Demand
    • LNG Available to Europe
  • Contracts
    • NBP and oil indexed contracts*
    • Contracts: Image 2
    • Contracts: Image 3
    • Contracts: Image 4
    • Norway contract changes
    • Contracts: Image 6
    • Contracts: Image 7
    • Contracts: Image 8
    • Contracts: Image 9
    • Contracts: Image 10
    • Contracts: Image 11
    • Contracts: Image 12
    • Europe pipe contracting – recent activities
    • Europe LNG contracting – recent activities
  • Prices
    • Economics* of Gas vs Coal** in the Power Sector
    • Forward Market*: NBP vs Russian Oil indexed Price
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Prices: Image 4
    • Prices: Image 5
    • Supply-demand gap
    • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Prices: Image 8
    • Prices: Image 9
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Russia contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
    • Russia flows by major pipelines into Europe
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 5
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 6
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 8
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 10
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 11
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 12
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 13
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
    • Third package adoptions by member states (as of June 2013)
    • Policy and regulation: Table 4
    • Policy and regulation: Image 1
    • Policy and regulation: Image 2
    • Policy and regulation: Table 5
    • Policy and regulation: Table 6
    • Historical carbon (EUA) prices in ETS trading phases
    • Policy and regulation: Image 4
    • Policy and regulation: Image 5
    • Policy and regulation: Image 6
    • Policy and regulation: Image 7
    • Policy and regulation: Image 8
    • Policy and regulation: Image 9
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Crude oil price outlook (Brent)
    • Oil product price outlook (NW Europe FOB)
    • Economic outlook: Image 4
    • Coal price forecast – cost and freight (CFR) ARA
    • Economic outlook: Image 6
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