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Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017: a tighter market

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21 December 2017

Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017: a tighter market

Report summary

Europe is going through one of the tightest winters of the last few years but with some 78 Mt of new LNG set to hit the global market by 2020, we still expect a wave of LNG coming to Europe, putting downward pressure on prices. But our new outlook features a less pronounced oversupply than previously anticipated with prices recovering faster post 2021. And in the longer term, with demand being resilient and indigenous production declining, Europe will need to compete with Asia for LNG as dependency on Russian gas will soon approach 40%.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Power sector
    • Non-power sectors
      • Industrial sector
      • Residential/commercial sector
      • Other sectors
      • Road transport
      • Domestic navigation bunkers
      • International LNG marine bunkers
    • Groningen restrictions tighten with risk to the downside. Long-term upside is hard to find.
    • LNG import infrastructure
      • Existing infrastructure
      • Near-term developments (2018-2019)
      • Longer-term prospects
      • Other Services
        • LNG services
        • Piped import infrastructure
          • TurkStream
          • Nord Stream 2
          • Southern Corridor (TANAP / TAP)
        • Gas storage infrastructure
          • Existing infrastructure
          • Projects under construction or planned
    • LNG
      • US LNG deals
      • Put option deals
      • Swap agreements
      • Other LNG deals
    • Piped
    • Supply-demand balances
      • Europe supply-demand gap
      • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Flow dynamics – Russia
    • Flow dynamics – Norway
    • Flow dynamics – Algeria
    • Flow dynamics – Southern Corridor
    • Flow dynamics – LNG
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Dimension 1: Energy security, solidarity and trust
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Security of supply and solidarity
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Internal market
      • Competition
      • Anti-trust enforcement
    • Dimension 3: Decarbonising the economy
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • The Paris Agreement, an upside risk for the EU climate change targets
      • Clean Energy for all Europeans
      • Renewable energy targets
      • Strengthening the EU emissions market
    • Dimension 4: Energy efficiency
      • Main projects and initiatives:
      • Energy efficiency targets
    • Dimension 5: Research, Innovation and Competitiveness
      • Main projects and initiatives

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • Q4 2017 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Gas price forecast
  • Gas demand by sector
  • Domestic gas supply
  • Key infrastructure
  • Energy Union package
  • Generation capacity growth by fuel*
  • Annual power supply by source*
  • Infrastructure: Image 2
  • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Russia contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Russia flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Norway contracted and uncontracted flows into Europe
  • Norway flows by major pipelines into Europe
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 9
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 10
  • Turkey supply (including transit) and demand
  • Southern Corridor flows (transiting Turkey)
  • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
  • Total LNG flows into Europe by importing regions
  • Contracted and flexible LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Total LNG flows into Europe by exporting regions
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2
  • Europe demand and supply mix
  • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
  • EU Energy Security Package
  • EU Third Energy Package
  • EU climate-energy targets
  • Carbon emissions forecast versus targets - EU 28
  • Infrastructure: Image 4
  • Infrastructure: Image 5
  • Infrastructure: Image 6
  • European regional storage capacity
  • Storage closures

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017: a tighter market

    PDF 4.06 MB

  • Document

    Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2017: a tighter market

    ZIP 4.36 MB

  • Document

    europe gas markets long term outlook h2 2017.xls

    XLS 1.39 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.81 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 66.86 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 82.34 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 130.56 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 99.38 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 3.60 MB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 89.74 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 168.22 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 78.22 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 245.80 KB

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