Indigenous production in Europe continues to decline through our forecast; output from mature fields naturally drops, despite increased efficiency and operational improvements to extend the life of ageing fields. Policy measures dictate Groningen output will be cut to 5 bcm/yr from October 2022 and shut-in by 2030. Potential upsides to Wood Mackenzie's European supply outlook are few: Europe is still waiting for significant shale gas exploration success to kick-start its unconventional gas sector. The outlook is weak, with no significant exploration success so far. There is scope for new production in the Black Sea, but political and regulatory hurdles will need to be addressed. Conventional upside risk could come from the East Mediterranean where Cyprus may benefit from the extension of the super-giant Zohr on Egypt's side of the maritime border.