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Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H1 2018

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16 August 2018

Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H1 2018

Report summary

Indigenous production in Europe continues to decline through our forecast; output from mature fields naturally drops, despite increased efficiency and operational improvements to extend the life of ageing fields. Policy measures dictate Groningen output will be cut to 5 bcm/yr from October 2022 and shut-in by 2030. Potential upsides to Wood Mackenzie's European supply outlook are few: Europe is still waiting for significant shale gas exploration success to kick-start its unconventional gas sector. The outlook is weak, with no significant exploration success so far. There is scope for new production in the Black Sea, but political and regulatory hurdles will need to be addressed. Conventional upside risk could come from the East Mediterranean where Cyprus may benefit from the extension of the super-giant Zohr on Egypt's side of the maritime border.

Table of contents

  • Navigation Table - European long-term gas & power
  • Executive summary
    • Groningen restrictions tighten with risk to the downside. Long-term upside is hard to find
    • Europe key production outlook
      • Could UK investment bolster growth?
      • Cyprus potential and other prospects
      • Romania's Black Sea remains one of the few bright spots
      • Norway's production will enter decline
    • Long-term or yet to find prospects
      • Unconventional supply
      • Cuadrilla gains fracking consent — a UK first
    • Europe's reliance on imports expands rapidly through our outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Navigation Table - European long-term gas & power: Table 1
  • Europe indigenous supply
  • Groningen production plan vs. WM 2017 base case
  • Europe unconventional production – a UK story

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H1 2018.xlsx

    XLSX 1.55 MB

  • Document

    Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H1 2018

    PDF 758.89 KB

  • Document

    Europe indigenous gas supply long-term outlook H1 2018

    ZIP 1.70 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 696.75 KB

  • Document

    Domestic gas supply

    PDF 746.55 KB

  • Document

    Navigation Table - European long-term gas & power

    PDF 682.12 KB

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