A mild winter has kept demand low and seen prices in the north of France fall to below US$7/mmbtu in June. A tight LNG market, capped Dutch production an increase in continental exports to the UK will keep prices high over the next few years, before greater supply competition emerges post 2018. Exposure to LNG dynamics and a lack of north-south capacity has led to much higher prices in the south of France, we expect this to continue until new transmission capacity is developed.
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Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.
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The Powernext Gas market, which accounts for around one third of traded volumes in France, has been in place since November 2008. This enables natural gas trade to take place in France on the French PEGs (Points d'échange de Gaz- exchange). There are three spot gas markets – PEGs Nord, Sud and TIGF. At each point the following contracts are offered;
Gas consumer prices
In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:
Executive summary: Image 1
Gas flows into France
Q1 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2030)
GDP forecast - France
French gas network
Policy and regulation
Policy and regulation: Table 1
Policy and regulation: Table 2
Quarterly French gas demand by sector (Q1 2010-Q4 2014)
Demand: Image 2
Demand: Image 3
Demand: Image 4
Gas production profile - 2005 to 2030
Infrastructure: Image 1
Infrastructure: Image 2
Infrastructure: Image 3
Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
Infrastructure: Image 5
Infrastructure: Image 6
Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
Contracts: Image 1
Contracts: Image 2
Contracts: Image 3
Contracts: Image 4
Contracts: Image 5
Contracts: Image 6
Gas supply demand gap
Gas flows into France
French export and transit gas flows
Costs: Image 1
Costs: Table 1
Costs: Table 2
TIGF French entry and exit capacity charges 2014
Costs: Table 4
Prices: Image 1
Development of gas trading at PEGs
Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
Regulated vs. market priced consumers and volumes March 2014
Margins: Table 2
Household sector gross margins based on Typical Oil Indexed contract (2007-2013)
Household sector gross margins based on PEG Nord hub pricing (2007-2013)
Household sector cost breakdown June 2013
Industrial sector gross margins based on oil indexed contract prices (2007-2013)
Industrial sector gross margins based on PEG Nord hub pricing (2007-2013)
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Commodity market report | Jul 2014
France gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014
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