Commodity Market Report

France gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017

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29 September 2017

France gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017

Report summary

France is moving towards gas market homogenisation by 2018. The major challenge is to overcome the capacity bottleneck for trade between the north and south of the country. The latter remains very dependent on LNG imports. It has historically traded gas at a premium to the north, the transit capacity from north to south being regularly congested. In 2016, the premium re-appeared as a result of higher demand and lower LNG availability. In the next five years, demand will be supported by low gas prices and the French government’s willingness  to phase out power generation from coal and decrease its dependence on nuclear. Longer term, we expect demand to decrease steadily. Renewables in the power sector and energy efficiency measures will kick in, and prices will reflect the need for new, more expensive supply sources to meet higher requirements in the Pacific basin.

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