Commodity market report
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37 Pages

France gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

France gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

The emergence of a premium between PEG Sud and PEG Nord, has prompted the French regulator to implement measures ahead of a north-south pipeline expansion planned for 2018. However, since December 2014, higher LNG imports have eroded the premium. Looking ahead, Peg Nord will continue to be influenced by market fundamentals in North West Europe and the UK. We see little scope for a sustained Peg Sud premium as reduced exports to Spain and higher LNG result in a more balanced market.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • France gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 1.02 MB 37 Pages, 10 Tables, 32 Figures
  • EGAPS France Gas H2 2014.xls XLS - 1.12 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2014-2018)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018-2035)
  • Economic outlook
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
    • Key targets
    • Unconventional gas supply
    • Security of electricity supply
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
    • Forecast summary
      • Gas demand by sector 2005 to 2035
    • Non-power gas demand
      • Commercial
      • Industrial
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Current gas infrastructure
      • Current LNG infrastructure
      • Existing pipeline infrastructure
      • Current gas storage infrastructure
    • New gas infrastructure
      • New pipeline infrastructure
      • New LNG infrastructure
      • New storage infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
      • Recent Trends
      • Contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to France
  • Prices
    • PEGs and price development
    • French hub gas price forecast
      • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Trading at PEGs
      • The Powernext Gas market, which accounts for around one third of traded volumes in France, has been in place since November 2008. This enables natural gas trade to take place in France on the French PEGs (Points d'échange de Gaz- exchange). There are three spot gas markets – PEGs Nord, Sud and TIGF. At each point the following contracts are offered;
    • Gas consumer prices
  • Margins
    • Household sector
    • Industrial sector

In this report there are 42 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Gas flows into France
  • Economic outlook
    • Q3 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2035)
    • GDP forecast - France
  • Market structure
    • French gas network
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Policy and regulation: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
  • Supply
    • Gas production profile - 2005 to 2035
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
    • Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Contracts
    • Contracts: Image 1
    • Contracts: Image 2
    • Contracts: Image 3
    • Contracts: Image 4
    • Contracts: Image 5
    • Contracts: Image 6
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Gas supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into France
    • French export and transit gas flows
  • Costs
    • Costs: Image 1
    • Costs: Table 1
    • Costs: Table 2
    • Costs: Table 3
    • Costs: Table 4
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Development of gas trading at PEGs
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Margins: Table 1
    • Margins: Table 2
    • Household sector gross margins based on Typical Oil Indexed contract (2007-2013)
    • Household sector gross margins based on PEG Nord hub pricing (2007-2013)
    • Household sector cost breakdown June 2013
    • Industrial sector gross margins based on oil indexed contract prices (2007-2013)
    • Industrial sector gross margins based on PEG Nord hub pricing (2007-2013)
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