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21 Pages

France gas markets long-term outlook - H2 2016

France gas markets long-term outlook - H2 2016

Report summary

France is moving towards gas market homogenisation by 2018. The major challenge is to overcome the capacity bottleneck for trade between the north and south of the country. The latter remains very dependent on LNG imports. It has historically traded gas at a premium to the north, the transit capacity from north to south being regularly congested. In 2016, the premium re-appeared as a result of higher demand and lower LNG availability.

In the next five years, demand will be supported by low gas prices and the French government’s willingness  to phase out power generation from coal and decrease its dependence on nuclear.

Longer term, we expect demand to decrease steadily. Renewables in the power sector and energy efficiency measures will kick in, and prices will reflect the need for new, more expensive supply sources to meet higher requirements in the Pacific basin.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • France gas markets long-term outlook - H2 2016 PDF - 932.79 KB 21 Pages, 3 Tables, 16 Figures
  • 2016 H2 EES France Gas.xls XLS - 1.45 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Key changes and recent trends
      • Links to related reports
  • Demand
    • Power generation
    • Residential
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
    • Transport
    • Other
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Gas pipeline infrastructure
      • Existing infrastructure
      • Planned developments
    • LNG infrastructure
    • Storage infrastructure
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
    • LNG imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent Trends
      • Contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Costs
    • Tariffs for transportation
      • GRTgaz charges
        • GRTgaz French entry and exit capacity charges 2016-17
      • TIGF charges
        • TIGF French entry and exit capacity charges 2016-17
      • Tariffs for LNG terminals
  • Prices
    • PEGs and price development
    • French hub gas price forecast
    • Trading at PEGs

In this report there are 19 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Demand
    • Gas demand by sector 2010 to 2035
  • Supply
    • Gas production profile - 2010 to 2035
  • Infrastructure
    • MAP
    • Import Capacity
    • Export Capcity
    • France storage outlook
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • Contracts: Image 2
    • Historical LNG imports
    • France contracted LNG imports
    • Historical piped exports
    • France contracted piped exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Gas supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into France
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to France
    • Costs: Table 1
    • Costs: Table 2
    • Tariffs for the use of LNG terminals 2016-17
  • Prices
    • French hub gas price forecast
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