Commodity market report
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38 Pages

Germany gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014


Germany gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

A mild winter has kept demand low and seen prices in Germany fall to below US$7/mmbtu in June. Despite this, we have seen limited demand response in the power sector as coal has maintained its attractiveness over gas. Assuming normal weather conditions, we expect prices to recover from this winter. A tight LNG market, capped Dutch production an increase in continental exports to the UK will keep prices high over the next few years, before greater supply competition emerges post 2018.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Germany gas markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 1.04 MB 38 Pages, 11 Tables, 32 Figures
  • EGAPS Germany Gas H1 2014.xls XLS - 1.13 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2014- 2017)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2030)
  • Economic outlook
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
    • Renewable Energy Act (EEG)
    • Feed-in tariffs
    • EEG reform
    • Combined Heat and Power act (KWKG)
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Gas infrastructure - existing
      • Existing pipeline infrastructure
      • Nord Stream
      • Infrastructure to deliver Nord Stream gas within and beyond Germany
      • Existing gas storage infrastructure
        • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
        • Gas infrastructure - new
      • New pipeline infrastructure
      • New LNG infrastructure
      • New storage infrastructure
        • Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Gas flows into Germany
      • Piped flow dynamics
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to Germany (2020)
  • Prices
    • NCG, Gaspool and wholesale price development
      • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Trading at Gaspool and NCG
      • Development of gas trading at Gaspool
    • Gas consumer prices
  • Margins
    • Household sector

In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2014 Economic indicators (2005-2030)
    • GDP forecast - Germany
  • Market structure
    • German gas network
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Key targets
    • Policy and regulation: Table 3
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Contracts
    • Contracts: Image 1
    • Contracts: Image 2
    • Contracts: Image 3
    • Contracts: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into Germany
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • German export and transit gas flows
  • Costs
    • Costs: Image 1
    • Costs: Table 1
    • Costs: Table 2
    • Costs: Table 3
    • Costs: Table 4
    • Costs: Table 5
    • Costs: Table 6
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Development of gas trading at NCG
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Margins: Image 1
    • Margins: Image 2
    • Margins: Image 3
    • Margins: Image 4
    • Margins: Image 5
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