Commodity market report
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39 Pages

Germany gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014


Germany gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

Gas demand in 2014 is forecast at 69 bcm, a decline of 19% from 2013.  Declines have been across all sectors, but particularly the non power sectors, a result of mild temperatures.

With oil price falling below US$70/bbl, expectations on future spot gas prices in Germany have also reduced. But oil price is not the only element affecting gas prices, with prices increasing some 30% since June. We continue to expect prices to increase in the period to 2018, before greater supply competition emerges.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Germany gas markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 1.06 MB 39 Pages, 10 Tables, 32 Figures
  • EGAPS Germany Gas H2 2014.xls XLS - 1.23 MB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Recent trends
    • Short/Mid term outlook summary (2015-2018)
    • Long term outlook summary (2018- 2035)
  • Economic outlook
  • Market structure
  • Policy and regulation
    • Key offices
    • Renewable Energy Act (EEG)
    • Feed-in tariffs
    • EEG reform
    • Combined Heat and Power act (KWKG)
    • Electricity market design
  • Demand
    • Recent events and short term outlook
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Gas infrastructure - existing
      • Existing pipeline infrastructure
      • Nord Stream
      • Infrastructure to deliver Nord Stream gas within and beyond Germany
      • Existing gas storage infrastructure
        • Existing infrastructure – gas storage (volume in mcm)
        • Gas infrastructure - new
      • New pipeline infrastructure
      • New LNG infrastructure
      • New storage infrastructure
        • Planned gas storage (volume in mcm)
  • Contracts
    • Piped imports: historical flows and contracts
      • Recent trends
      • Contracts
    • Gas exports: historical flows and contracts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Gas flows into Germany
      • Piped flow dynamics
  • Costs
    • Long run delivered costs of gas to Germany
  • Prices
    • NCG, Gaspool traded volumes and wholesale price development
      • Annual gas prices (real 2014)
    • Trading at Gaspool and NCG
      • Development of gas trading at Gaspool
    • Gas consumer prices
  • Margins
    • Household sector
      • Household sector BAFA linked gross margins (band D2: 20GJ

In this report there are 42 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • GDP forecast - Germany
  • Market structure
    • German gas network
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
    • Key targets
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Contracts
    • Historical piped imports
    • Contracts: Image 2
    • Historical piped exports
    • Germany contracted piped exports
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply demand gap
    • Gas flows into Germany
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • German export and transit gas flows
  • Costs
    • Costs: Image 1
    • Costs: Table 1
    • Costs: Table 2
    • Costs: Table 3
    • Costs: Table 4
    • Costs: Table 5
    • Costs: Table 6
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Development of gas trading at NCG
    • Historical consumer prices (2007-2013)
  • Margins
    • Margins: Image 1
    • Margins: Image 2
    • Margins: Image 3
    • Margins: Image 4
    • Margins: Image 5
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