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Global gas markets long-term outlook 2019: Costs

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13 August 2019

Global gas markets long-term outlook 2019: Costs

Report summary

In this report, we look at how cost of gas evolves over the forecast period and how this impacts our view of gas pricing. Despite the short-term bearish price outlook and global economic rumblings, LNG suppliers are still taking a long-term bullish view of gas demand. A further 35 mmtpa of LNG projects have been sanctioned since the start of 2019, yet we forecast another 25 mmtpa of LNG supply is still required by 2025 to meet growing demand. With the US set to be the largest LNG supplier in the world by the mid-2020s, Henry Hub prices will play an important role in global gas and LNG prices. In our 2019 update, our Henry Hub price forecast is down resulting in lower US LNG costs. Something about Algeria/Russia/Norway?

Table of contents

  • Methodology and assumptions
  • Near term - market rebalancing and the cost of supply delivery
  • Long term – opportunity still open for further supply
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Delivered cost to Europe

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Chart 1: Russia gas to Europe via Nord Stream
  • Chart 2: Russian revenue and piped exports (2020)
  • Chart 3: Lower 48 gas breakevens through time
  • Chart 4:European spot price vs. the delivered cost of US LNG
  • Chart 5: Delivered cost of Norwegian gas to the UK (2022)
  • Chart 6: Delivered cost of Algerian gas to Italy (2022)
  • Chart 7: LNG cost stack DES to Asia
  • Chart 8: Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
  • Chart 9: Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Chart 9: Northwest Europe cost of supply for select pre-FID projects (2030)
  • Chart 10: Southern Europe cost of supply for select pre-FID projects (2030)
  • Chart 11: Delivered cost to the UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium (2030)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global_gas_costs_2019.xlsx

    XLSX 141.24 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook 2019: Costs

    ZIP 1011.93 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook 2019: Costs

    ZIP 1011.57 KB

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