Commodity market report
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29 Pages

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H1 2014


Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H1 2014

Report summary

In the medium term, we continue to see strong European and Asian spot prices, with increased LNG from the Atlantic and Qatar being diverted to the Pacific market.

In the period 2019-2021, we forecast a collapse in spot price as a result of a global oversupply with growing LNG output from Australia and the US.  Thereafter, market fundamentals are expected to rebalance, but abundant global gas and LNG supply will result in prices being consistent with the cost of new supply.

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H1 2014 PDF - 499.74 KB 29 Pages, 0 Tables, 45 Figures
  • Global Gas Markets- Macro Assumptions-H1 2014.xls XLS - 382.00 KB
  • Global Gas Markets-Base Case-H1 2014.xls XLS - 1.40 MB
  • Global Gas Markets - Prices - H1 2014.xls XLS - 327.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
    • Introduction
    • Scenario overview
      • Contestable demand
    • Competing Supply
      • Global competing supply availability
  • Prices
    • Global gas spot price forecast
    • European price premium
    • Russian delivered cost curve in Europe (2030)
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Trade
    • Medium Term
      • Pacific Basin - LNG
        • Pacific LNG demand and supply
        • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
        • Pacific LNG flows by source
      • Atlantic Basin - LNG
      • Atlantic Basin -Europe
      • Americas
    • Long Term
      • Pacific Basin - LNG
      • Americas
      • LNG supply mix prognosis
  • Economic outlook
    • Coal price assumption
    • Global coal prices
    • Carbon price assumption

In this report there are 45 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Global contestable market
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Excess capacity
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Prices: Image 4
  • Trade
    • Pacific LNG demand
    • Pacific contestable LNG demand by market
    • Trade: Image 3
    • Trade: Image 4
    • Trade: Image 5
    • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
    • Net LNG available to Atlantic
    • Europe demand v contracted supply
    • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
    • Europe demand and supply mix
    • North America LNG imports
    • North America LNG imports by source
    • Pacific LNG demand
    • Pacific contestable LNG demand by market
    • Trade: Image 16
    • US (L48) LNG exports by destination
    • West Canada and Alaska LNG exports by destination
    • Pacific LNG flows by source
    • Atlantic flows to Pacific by source
    • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
    • Net LNG available to Atlantic
    • Europe demand v contracted supply
    • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
    • Europe demand and supply mix
    • North America LNG imports
    • North America LNG imports by source
    • South America LNG imports
    • South America LNG imports by source
    • Atlantic LNG imports by source
    • Pacific and Middle East LNG imports by source
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2014 Regional GDP growth
    • Regional GDP growth - CAGR 2014-2030
    • Economic outlook: Image 3
    • Economic outlook: Image 4
    • EU ETS carbon price
    • US and Canada carbon price
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