Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H1 2016

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19 July 2016

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H1 2016

Report summary

Global gas fundamentals have shifted since our last forecast – creating a lower for longer outlook for LNG spot pricing, both in the Atlantic and Pacific. Wood Mackenzie believes that a significant tipping point has been reached, whereby Russia is now incentivised to pursue market share in Europe. This is due to a combination of greater LNG supply availability to Europe, lower coal prices and a higher US gas price.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Pacific
    • Pacific Basin - LNG
    • Atlantic Basin - LNG
      • Atlantic Basin - Europe
    • Americas
      • LNG Imports
      • LNG Exports
    • Brent oil price assumption
    • Coal price assumption
    • Carbon price assumption
      • US carbon prices
      • European carbon prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Global gas spot price forecast
  • H1 2016 Regional GDP growth
  • Regional GDP growth - CAGR 2015-2035
  • Economics of gas vs coal in the power Sector
  • Coal to gas switching volumes at different gas prices*
  • Economics of US LNG vs Russian export to Europe
  • NBP, Henry Hub and the economics of US LNG to Europe
  • US LNG utilisation vs capacity (under construction)
  • Russian exports to Europe
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Pacific LNG Demand by market
  • Pacific contestable demand by market
  • Pacific LNG demand and supply
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
  • Pacific LNG flows by source
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic
  • Brent oil price
  • Global coal prices
  • Europe supply-demand gap
  • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
  • Europe demand and supply mix
  • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
  • North America LNG Imports
  • South America LNG Imports*
  • US Lower 48 LNG exports by destination
  • Canada and Alaska LNG exports by destination
  • EU ETS carbon price
  • US carbon prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets - Base case - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 925.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets - Macro assumptions - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 712.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets - Prices - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 212.00 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H1 2016

    PDF 442.25 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H1 2016

    ZIP 899.60 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.50 KB

  • Document


    PDF 164.64 KB

  • Document


    PDF 170.28 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 115.78 KB

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