Commodity market report
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19 Pages

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H2 2015


Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H2 2015

Report summary

In the medium term, we see upside in European spot prices as Europe continues to require discretionary Russian gas and oil prices recover. In the period 2018-2023, we forecast further downside on European and Asian spot price as a result of a global oversupply with growing LNG output from Australia and the US, despite expectation of increasing oil prices.  Thereafter, market fundamentals are expected to rebalance, but abundant global gas and LNG supply will result in prices being consistent with the cost of new supply

What's included?

This report includes 4 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base case - H2 2015 PDF - 483.01 KB 19 Pages, 0 Tables, 28 Figures
  • Global Gas Markets - Macro assumptions - H2 2015.xls XLS - 714.50 KB
  • Global Gas Markets - Prices - H2 2015.xls XLS - 216.50 KB
  • Global Gas Markets - Base Case - H2 2015.xls XLS - 900.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Trade
    • Pacific Basin - LNG
    • Atlantic Basin - LNG
      • Atlantic Basin - Europe
    • Americas
      • LNG Imports
      • LNG Exports
  • Economic outlook
    • Brent oil price assumption
    • Coal price assumption
    • Carbon price assumption
      • US carbon prices
      • European carbon prices

In this report there are 28 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Global gas spot price forecast
    • Economics* of gas vs coal** in the power Sector
    • Coal to gas switching volumes at different gas prices*
    • Russian exports to Europe flows vs ACQ and ToP
    • Russian contract prices, Gazprom price and NBP
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Trade
    • Pacific LNG Demand by market
    • Pacific contestable demand by market
    • Pacific LNG demand and supply
    • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
    • Pacific LNG flows by source
    • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
    • Net LNG available to Atlantic
    • Europe demand v contracted supply
    • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
    • Europe demand and supply mix
    • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
    • North America LNG Imports
    • South America LNG Imports*
    • US Gulf Coast LNG exports by destination
    • West Canada, Alaska and US West Coast LNG exports by destination
  • Economic outlook
    • Q1 2015 Regional GDP growth
    • Regional GDP growth - CAGR 2015-2035
    • Brent oil price
    • Global coal prices
    • EU ETS carbon price
    • US and Canada carbon price
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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.