Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H2 2016

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27 January 2017

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H2 2016

Report summary

Global gas and LNG rallied ahead of winter 2016/17 supported by high coal prices and booming LNG demand in China. With global LNG supply increasing by more than 10% in 2017 we expect LNG prices will soon come under pressure, despite increasing oil prices. But while an oversupplied global gas/LNG market remains inevitable for the next years, our H2 2016 update is for a tighter global gas market post 2019. Higher Asian LNG demand, lower European domestic production and higher coal prices, all combine for higher LNG prices, particularly in Asia.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • North America
      • Russia pipe flows to Europe
    • Pacific Basin - LNG
      • Pacific and Middle East LNG Demand by market
    • Atlantic Basin - LNG
      • Atlantic Basin - Europe
    • Americas
      • LNG Imports
      • LNG Exports
    • Brent oil price assumption
    • Coal price assumption
    • Carbon price assumption
      • US Carbon prices
      • European carbon prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • Global gas spot price forecast
  • H2 2016 Regional GDP growth
  • Regional GDP growth - CAGR 2015-2035
  • Economics of Russia pipe gas vs US LNG
  • Coal to gas switching in Europe
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic
  • Brent oil price
  • Global coal prices
  • Prices: Image 4
  • US post-FID LNG flows by destination
  • Global spot price differentials
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Trade: Image 1
  • Pacific contestable demand by market
  • Pacific LNG demand and supply
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
  • Pacific LNG flows by source
  • Europe supply-demand gap
  • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
  • Europe demand and supply mix
  • Europe contestable demand and supply mix
  • North America LNG Imports
  • South America LNG Imports*
  • US Lower 48 LNG exports by destination
  • Canada and Alaska LNG exports by destination
  • EU ETS carbon price
  • US carbon prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets - Prices - H2 2016.xls

    XLS 205.00 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets - base case - H2 2016.xls

    XLS 2.75 MB

  • Document

    global gas markets - macro assumptions - h2 2016.xls

    XLS 716.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H2 2016

    PDF 616.71 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Base Case - H2 2016

    ZIP 1.25 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 82.50 KB

  • Document


    PDF 339.93 KB

  • Document


    PDF 171.74 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 113.75 KB