Global gas markets long-term outlook: Base Case - H2 2017
With Asian LNG prices currently trading at a three year high, some are questioning whether the much talked-about global LNG oversupply will ever materialise. Despite positive signs of demand growth, particularly LNG in China, we still expect a wave of new LNG to come to Europe. And with pipe suppliers determined to maintain market share, things are likely to get worse before they get better. Our new outlook however features a less pronounced oversupply than previously anticipated. Higher Asian gas demand, lower Australian supply and slippages in LNG project start-ups mean that the global gas market will be able to absorb the oversupply sooner than previously expected. Post-2020, market fundamentals and prices strengthen, pointing towards a tighter market, but buyers need to move soon if they want to avoid a return to a sellers market.