Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook: Base Case - H2 2017

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05 February 2018

Global gas markets long-term outlook: Base Case - H2 2017

Report summary

With Asian LNG prices currently trading at a three year high, some are questioning whether the much talked-about global LNG oversupply will ever materialise. Despite positive signs of demand growth, particularly LNG in China, we still expect a wave of new LNG  to come to Europe. And with pipe suppliers determined to maintain market share, things are likely to get worse before they get better. Our new outlook however features a less pronounced oversupply than previously anticipated. Higher Asian gas demand, lower Australian supply and slippages in LNG project start-ups mean that the global gas market will be able to absorb the oversupply sooner than previously expected. Post-2020, market fundamentals and prices strengthen, pointing towards a tighter market, but buyers need to move soon if they want to avoid a return to a sellers market.

Table of contents

    • Other H2 2017 reports:
    • North America
      • North American supply vs. pipeline capacity
      • Global LNG supply-demand (Un)balance
    • Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
    • Carbon price assumption
      • US Carbon prices
      • European carbon prices
        • EU ETS carbon price

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Global gas spot price forecast
  • Brent oil price
  • Global coal prices
  • Trade: Image 1
  • Pacific contestable demand by market
  • Pacific LNG demand and supply
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
  • Pacific LNG flows by source
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic vs Europe supply-demand gap
  • Europe supply-demand gap
  • Europe contestable demand and competing supply
  • Europe demand and supply mix
  • Europe import dependency
  • North America LNG Imports
  • South America LNG Imports*
  • US Lower 48 LNG exports by destination
  • Canada and Alaska LNG exports by destination
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Europe import dependency
  • Prices: Table 1
  • US LNG utilisation versus capacity (post-FID)
  • NBP, Henry Hub and the economics of US LNG into Europe
  • Global spot price differentials
  • Prices: Image 8
  • Prices: Image 9
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Economic outlook: Image 3
  • Economic outlook: Table 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Gas Outlook - Base Case - H2 2017.xls

    XLS 2.21 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook: Base Case - H2 2017

    PDF 679.85 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook: Base Case - H2 2017

    ZIP 1.46 MB

  • Document

    global gas markets - prices - h2 2017.xls

    XLS 205.00 KB

  • Document

    global gas markets - macro assumptions - h2 2017.xls

    XLS 3.52 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 82.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.76 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 133.29 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 339.93 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 275.87 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 332.64 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 171.74 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 171.40 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 181.77 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 113.75 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 116.62 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 134.69 KB

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