Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - China - H1 2016

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01 July 2016

Global gas markets long-term outlook - China - H1 2016

Report summary

The gloom surrounding the Chinese gas market in 2015 has been replaced with cautious optimism as a recovery in the oil price, lower domestic city gate prices and a series of national and local policies aimed at supporting gas have combined to improve the outlook through the mid-term at least. However, despite these positive indicators, the lost momentum in the Chinese gas market through 2015, combined with reduced levels of domestic investment and lower GDP growth, is again resulting in a lower long-term outlook for gas in China.   

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • Gas demand growth improving as oil prices recover
    • and supported by lower gas prices
    • The path to gas market liberalisation is unclear
    • but stalled progress on pipe imports, higher cost domestic gas and shale gas challenges are supporting a more bullish LNG demand outlook
    • Slower economic growth inevitably means lower long-term gas demand
  • Economic outlook
    • Gas price reform
    • Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP)
    • Energy Development Strategic Action Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan
    • Power sector
    • Non-power sectors
      • Industrial sector
      • Residential/commercial sector
      • Transport
    • Indigenous production
      • Domestic conventional supply
      • Unconventional supply: tight gas
      • Unconventional supply: CBM/CMM
      • Unconventional supply: SNG/coal to gas
      • Unconventional supply: shale gas
    • Regasification
    • Pipelines
    • LNG contracts
    • Pipeline contracts
  • Costs
    • Medium term
    • Long term
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • H1 2016 GDP growth (2010-2035)
  • Gas demand by sector
  • Key Infrastructure
  • Long run delivered costs of gas to China
  • Contracted supply-demand gap
  • Supply-demand balance
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Power generation mix
  • Domestic gas supply
  • Infrastructure: Table 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook -China -H1 2016.xls

    XLS 607.00 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - China - H1 2016

    PDF 695.86 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - China - H1 2016

    ZIP 869.10 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 89.28 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 62.10 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 85.17 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 99.33 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 108.73 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 419.08 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 90.36 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 101.36 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 110.79 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 81.09 KB