Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - 2017

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27 October 2017

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - 2017

Report summary

In this report, we look at how cost of gas evolves over the forecast period and how this impacts our view of gas pricing.  A period of oversupply is on the horizon for the global gas market. The key determinants of global price formation over this period are expected to be competition between Russia and US exports into Europe. At the same time, Europe's other major piped suppliers will also defend their own market share with cost competitive supply. Longer term, oversupply will ease and a supply-demand gap will emerge. This will create opportunities for new supply to enter the mix. Picking which projects win is difficult. However, it is the cost of these new, more expensive projects which will underpin price rises post-2025. . 

Table of contents

    • Methodology and assumptions
    • Medium term - an oversupplied market
    • Long term – opportunity opens up for new supply
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
    • Delivered cost to Europe

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Chart 1: US LNG cash cost range to Europe
  • Chart 2: Russia gas to Europe via Nord Stream
  • Chart 3: Delivered cost of Norwegian gas to Europe (2022)
  • Chart 4: Breakeven cost of Algerian gas, excl. transport to Europe (2025)
  • Chart 5: European spot price vs. the delivered cost of US LNG
  • Chart 6: Pre-FID cost stack DES to Asia
  • Chart 7: Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
  • Chart 8: Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Chart 9: Northwest Europe cost of supply (2030)
  • Chart 10: Southern Europe cost of supply (2030)
  • Chart 11: Delivered cost to Northwest Europe (2030)
  • Chart 12: Delivered cost to Southern Europe (2030)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long term outlook costs H12017.xlsx

    XLSX 214.88 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - 2017

    PDF 475.42 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - 2017

    ZIP 1.25 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 313.73 KB

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