Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - H2 2016

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16 March 2017

Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - H2 2016

Report summary

A period of oversupply is on the horizon for the global gas and LNG market in the medium term. Despite growing demand for LNG in Asia and emerging markets, it is not enough to absorb all new US LNG that is coming to market. The key determinants of global price formation over this period is expected to be the competition between Russia and US exports into Europe and their delivered costs. Other sources of piped gas supply into Europe will also remain competitive. Longer term, this oversupply will ease and a supply-demand gap will emerge in Asia and Europe. This will create opportunities for new supply to enter the mix, including new LNG. Smaller-scale, niche projects and incremental developments appear advantaged in the next few years but larger scale projects are also expected to be developed to meet demand longer term. It is the cost of these new, more expensive projects which will underpin price rises post-2025.

Table of contents

    • Methodology and assumptions
    • Medium term - an oversupplied market
    • Long term – opportunity opens up for new supply
      • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
      • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
      • Delivered cost to Europe

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Chart 1: US LNG cash cost range to Europe
  • Chart 2: Russia gas to Europe via Nord Stream
  • Chart 3 European spot price versus the delivered cost of US LNG
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Chart 6: Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2025)
  • Chart 7: Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Chart 8: Northwest Europe cost of supply, 2030
  • Chart 9: Southern Europe cost of supply, 2030
  • Executive summary: Image 9
  • Executive summary: Image 10

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long term outlook costs H2 2016.xlsx

    XLSX 282.79 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - H2 2016

    PDF 406.17 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - H2 2016

    ZIP 619.79 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 246.14 KB

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