Global gas markets long-term outlook - Costs - H2 2016
A period of oversupply is on the horizon for the global gas and LNG market in the medium term. Despite growing demand for LNG in Asia and emerging markets, it is not enough to absorb all new US LNG that is coming to market. The key determinants of global price formation over this period is expected to be the competition between Russia and US exports into Europe and their delivered costs. Other sources of piped gas supply into Europe will also remain competitive. Longer term, this oversupply will ease and a supply-demand gap will emerge in Asia and Europe. This will create opportunities for new supply to enter the mix, including new LNG. Smaller-scale, niche projects and incremental developments appear advantaged in the next few years but larger scale projects are also expected to be developed to meet demand longer term. It is the cost of these new, more expensive projects which will underpin price rises post-2025.