Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018: Base Case

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07 August 2018

Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018: Base Case

Report summary

In our H2-2017 update, we talked about a less pronounced period of oversupply and a global LNG market in need of some 45 mmtpa of new LNG supply by 2025. With supply-demand fundamentals strengthening and growing optimism in the global gas and LNG industries, the market now looks to need more LNG than previously expected – some 65 mmtpa by 2025. Crucially this also means the prospect of an LNG oversupply between 2019 and 2021 is diminished and has shifted to a more modest market rebalancing. The Global Gas Service Base Case report provides an overview of our H1 2018 outlook and price fundamentals. 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Pacific Basin - LNG
      • LNG imports
      • Asia-Pacific
      • Middle East
        • Pacific LNG demand and supply
      • LNG exports
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Brent oil price forecast (H1 2018)
    • Carbon price assumptions
      • European carbon prices
      • US carbon prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

  • Global gas spot price forecast
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Global spot price differentials
  • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Economic outlook: Image 2
  • Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
  • Pacific uncontracted demand by market*
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand and competing available supply
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic
  • Europe supply-demand gap - Contracted volumes
  • Europe supply-demand gap - Uncontracted volumes
  • Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
  • Europe import dependency
  • Europe supply-demand balance
  • North America LNG imports
  • South America LNG imports
  • US Lower 48 exports by destination
  • Canada and Alaska LNG exports
  • Carbon price (EUA) forecast
  • Trade: Image 4

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global Gas Service - Base Case - H1 2018.xls

    XLS 2.73 MB

  • Document

    Global Gas Service - Base Case - H1 2018 - Other Charts.xlsx

    XLSX 635.76 KB

  • Document

    global gas markets - macro assumptions - h1 2018.xls

    XLS 3.45 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018: Base Case

    PDF 1000.31 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H1 2018: Base Case

    ZIP 2.26 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 82.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.76 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 133.29 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 730.32 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 171.74 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 171.40 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 181.77 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 810.18 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 339.93 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 275.87 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 332.64 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 839.99 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook - model assumptions

    PDF 743.57 KB