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22 Pages

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016

Report summary

LNG supply grew by 2% to 250 mmtpa in 2015 as ramp up at new projects in Australia was negated by reduced output from operational legacy projects in Egypt, Indonesia and Algeria.

LNG output is forecast to grow 35% by 2020 as new projects in USA and Australia are brought online. So the dynamics of global LNG flows are expected to change, shifting supply back to Europe, sending the market into oversupply. In this environment, some new US LNG projects maybe unable to cover the cash costs of delivery to Europe, especially in the summer, potentially leading to lower utilisation.

The outlook for project FID is also weakening. Only one project has been sanctioned in 2016, Tangguh Train 3. Other projects are targeting FID in 2016, some are likely to go ahead, but the chances of others progressing depends on if they can secure customers. Demand for new projects will eventually improve and we forecast new supply will be needed by 2025. We forecast global LNG supply to more than double by 2035.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016 PDF - 844.93 KB 22 Pages, 3 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016.xls XLS - 1.15 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • LNG supply - operational and under construction
      • Australia
      • Indonesia
      • USA
      • Malaysia
      • Russia
      • Cameroon
    • Supply outages
      • Shortfall below nominal capacity
      • Indonesia
      • Algeria
      • Nigeria
      • Angola
      • Yemen
      • Kenai (USA)
      • Arun and Bontang (Indonesia)
      • Marsa el Brega (Libya)
      • Damietta and ELNG (Egypt)
      • Arzew and Skikda (Algeria)
    • Projects targeting FID
      • Near term prospects (supply projects targeting FID in 2016)
      • Atlantic Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
      • Pacific Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
        • LNG nominal capacity associated with projects targeting FID in 2016 and 2016
      • Longer term prospects
        • North America
        • East Africa
        • West Africa
        • Russia
        • South East Asia
        • Australia
        • East Mediterranean
      • Which projects will proceed?
        • LNG nominal capacity potentially available by 2030
  • Trade
    • Global LNG capacity
    • LNG output forecast
      • The next five years
      • US utilisation could be impacted
      • Post 2022 outlook and prospect for pre FID supply
    • Project impact
      • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
    • LNG shipping
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • US LNG shut-ins
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
      • Global unforeseen outage risk factor
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Downsides
        • Declining output from legacy plants
        • North Africa LNG exports
        • North American LNG exports
      • Upsides
        • Upside to modest Qatari growth
        • Iran LNG potential
        • East Mediterranean

In this report there are 16 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Map - LNG supply facilities (existing and under construction)
    • Nominal capacity v LNG output (existing and under construction)
    • Start dates of LNG supply facilities (recently commissioned and under construction)
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Summary of significant supply outages
    • Map - supply projects targeting FID in 2016
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Map - longer term LNG supply prospects
    • Supply: Image 8
  • Trade
    • Global LNG capacity
    • LNG supply outlook by source country
    • Trade: Table 1
    • Trade: Table 2
    • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
    • Trade: Image 4
    • LNG vessel deliveries by capacity group vs short-term/spot charter rates
  • Risks and uncertainties
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