Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016

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28 July 2016

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016

Report summary

LNG supply grew by 2% to 250 mmtpa in 2015 as ramp up at new projects in Australia was negated by reduced output from operational legacy projects in Egypt, Indonesia and Algeria. LNG output is forecast to grow 35% by 2020 as new projects in USA and Australia are brought online. So the dynamics of global LNG flows are expected to change, shifting supply back to Europe, sending the market into oversupply. In this environment, some new US LNG projects maybe unable to cover the cash costs of delivery to Europe, especially in the summer, potentially leading to lower utilisation. The outlook for project FID is also weakening. Only one project has been sanctioned in 2016, Tangguh Train 3. Other projects are targeting FID in 2016, some are likely to go ahead, but the chances of others progressing depends on if they can secure customers. Demand for new projects will eventually improve and we forecast new supply will be needed by 2025. We forecast global LNG supply to more than double by 2035.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • LNG supply - operational and under construction
      • Australia
      • Indonesia
      • USA
      • Malaysia
      • Russia
      • Cameroon
    • Supply outages
      • Shortfall below nominal capacity
      • Indonesia
      • Algeria
      • Nigeria
      • Angola
      • Yemen
      • Kenai (USA)
      • Arun and Bontang (Indonesia)
      • Marsa el Brega (Libya)
      • Damietta and ELNG (Egypt)
      • Arzew and Skikda (Algeria)
    • Projects targeting FID
      • Near term prospects (supply projects targeting FID in 2016)
      • Atlantic Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
      • Pacific Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
        • LNG nominal capacity associated with projects targeting FID in 2016 and 2016
      • Longer term prospects
        • North America
        • East Africa
        • West Africa
        • Russia
        • South East Asia
        • Australia
        • East Mediterranean
      • Which projects will proceed?
        • LNG nominal capacity potentially available by 2030
    • Global LNG capacity
    • LNG output forecast
      • The next five years
      • US utilisation could be impacted
      • Post 2022 outlook and prospect for pre FID supply
    • Project impact
      • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
    • LNG shipping
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • US LNG shut-ins
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
      • Global unforeseen outage risk factor
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Downsides
        • Declining output from legacy plants
        • North Africa LNG exports
        • North American LNG exports
      • Upsides
        • Upside to modest Qatari growth
        • Iran LNG potential
        • East Mediterranean

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • Map - LNG supply facilities (existing and under construction)
  • Nominal capacity v LNG output (existing and under construction)
  • Start dates of LNG supply facilities (recently commissioned and under construction)
  • Global LNG capacity
  • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
  • LNG vessel deliveries by capacity group vs short-term/spot charter rates
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Summary of significant supply outages
  • Map - supply projects targeting FID in 2016
  • Map - longer term LNG supply prospects
  • LNG supply outlook by source country
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Trade: Table 2
  • Trade: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 8

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 1.15 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016

    PDF 844.93 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016

    ZIP 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 101.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 437.21 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 308.46 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 114.67 KB

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