Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H1 2016
LNG supply grew by 2% to 250 mmtpa in 2015 as ramp up at new projects in Australia was negated by reduced output from operational legacy projects in Egypt, Indonesia and Algeria. LNG output is forecast to grow 35% by 2020 as new projects in USA and Australia are brought online. So the dynamics of global LNG flows are expected to change, shifting supply back to Europe, sending the market into oversupply. In this environment, some new US LNG projects maybe unable to cover the cash costs of delivery to Europe, especially in the summer, potentially leading to lower utilisation. The outlook for project FID is also weakening. Only one project has been sanctioned in 2016, Tangguh Train 3. Other projects are targeting FID in 2016, some are likely to go ahead, but the chances of others progressing depends on if they can secure customers. Demand for new projects will eventually improve and we forecast new supply will be needed by 2025. We forecast global LNG supply to more than double by 2035.