Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017

Report summary

Global LNG supply is growing fast, as legacy exporters outperform and new capacity ramps up, mainly in the US and Australia. Production has grown by 15%since 2015 and by 2020, we expect global supply to rise another 20%, as further projects in both these countries are brought onstream.
We expect most projects targeting Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2017 to be delayed, with only Fortuna FLNG likely to progress. The prospects for 2018 also seem bleak with only niche projects, and brownfield expansions proceeding in the short term. There is little appetite for investments in large scale infrastructure in the current low price environment.
Longer term, we expect the market for new supply to improve and we forecast global LNG supply to more than double between 2015-2035. With Qatar pushing to maintain market share, the competition for new projects is fierce, and costs are coming down.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017 PDF - 781.07 KB 11 Pages, 0 Tables, 13 Figures
  • GGS LNG Supply - Global H1 2017.xls XLS - 1.96 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
  • Trade
    • LNG output forecast
    • Near term forecast: 2017 - 2022
      • US utilisation will be impacted
    • Post-2023 outlook and prospect for pre-FID supply
    • Costs
    • Global LNG capacity
    • Project impact
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • Competition between Russian gas and US LNG in the European market
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
      • Declining output from legacy plants
      • North American LNG exports
      • Iran LNG potential

In this report there are 13 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Nominal Capacity v LNG Output (Existing and Under Construction)
  • Trade
    • LNG output forecast
    • Trade: Image 2
    • Trade: Image 3
    • Trade: Image 4
    • Trade: Image 5
    • LNG FIDs since 2004
    • LNG supply outlook by source basin
    • LNG supply outlook by destination basin
    • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
    • Global LNG capacity
    • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
    • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
  • Risks and uncertainties
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