Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017

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07 September 2017

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017

Report summary

Global LNG supply is growing fast, as legacy exporters outperform and new capacity ramps up, mainly in the US and Australia. Production has grown by 15%since 2015 and by 2020, we expect global supply to rise another 20%, as further projects in both these countries are brought onstream. We expect most projects targeting Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2017 to be delayed, with only Fortuna FLNG likely to progress. The prospects for 2018 also seem bleak with only niche projects, and brownfield expansions proceeding in the short term. There is little appetite for investments in large scale infrastructure in the current low price environment. Longer term, we expect the market for new supply to improve and we forecast global LNG supply to more than double between 2015-2035. With Qatar pushing to maintain market share, the competition for new projects is fierce, and costs are coming down.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • LNG output forecast
    • Near term forecast: 2017 - 2022
      • US utilisation will be impacted
    • Post-2023 outlook and prospect for pre-FID supply
    • Costs
    • Global LNG capacity
    • Project impact
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • Competition between Russian gas and US LNG in the European market
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
      • Declining output from legacy plants
      • North American LNG exports
      • Iran LNG potential

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Nominal Capacity v LNG Output (Existing and Under Construction)
  • LNG output forecast
  • LNG FIDs since 2004
  • LNG supply outlook by source basin
  • LNG supply outlook by destination basin
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Global LNG capacity
  • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
  • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
  • Trade: Image 2
  • Trade: Image 3
  • Trade: Image 4
  • Trade: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    GGS LNG Supply - Global H1 2017.xls

    XLS 1.96 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017

    PDF 781.07 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H1 2017

    ZIP 1.98 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 78.23 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.63 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 85.14 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 462.16 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 561.20 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 126.46 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 124.98 KB

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