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22 Pages

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015

Report summary

The key driver of LNG growth in 2015 was new Australian supply. In 2016, we expect output to continue rising, with first LNG from the USA a key driver. By 2020, we expect global supply to rise by 49%, as further projects in both these countries are brought onstream.

We expect most projects targeting Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2016 to be delayed although some projects will proceed. We assume new US LNG projects will be delayed with buyers' appetites for Henry Hub linked LNG subdued.

Beyond 2017, the prospects for new pre FID supply become even bleaker. By 2024 however, we expect the market for new supply to have improved and we forecast global LNG supply to have more than doubled between 2015-2035.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015 PDF - 960.57 KB 22 Pages, 2 Tables, 13 Figures
  • Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015.xls XLS - 1.20 MB


Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • LNG supply - operational and under construction
      • Australia
      • Indonesia
      • USA
      • Malaysia
      • Russia
      • Cameroon
    • Supply outages
      • Shortfall below nominal capacity
      • Indonesia
      • Algeria
      • Nigeria
      • Angola
      • Yemen
      • Kenai (USA)
      • Arun and Bontang (Indonesia)
      • Marsa el Brega (Libya)
      • Damietta and ELNG (Egypt)
      • Arzew and Skikda (Algeria)
    • Projects targeting FID
      • Near term prospects (supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016)
      • Atlantic Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
      • Pacific Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
      • Longer term prospects
        • North America
        • East Africa
        • West Africa
        • Russia
        • South East Asia
        • Australia
        • East Mediterranean
      • Which projects will proceed?
  • Trade
    • Global LNG capacity
    • LNG output forecast
      • The next five years
      • Post 2020 outlook and prospect for pre FID supply
    • Project impact
      • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
    • LNG shipping
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • US LNG shut-ins
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
      • Global unforeseen outage risk factor
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Downsides
        • Nigeria LNG growth
        • South East Asia LNG output
        • North Africa LNG exports
        • North American LNG exports
      • Upsides
        • Upside to modest Qatari growth
        • Iran LNG potential
        • East Mediterranean

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Map - LNG supply facilities (existing and under construction)
    • Nominal capacity v LNG output (existing and under construction)
    • Start dates of LNG supply facilities (recently commissioned and under construction)
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Summary of significant supply outages
    • Map - supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016
    • LNG nominal capacity associated with projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016
    • Map - longer term LNG supply prospects
    • LNG nominal capacity potentially available by 2030
  • Trade
    • Global LNG capacity
    • LNG supply outlook by source country
    • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
    • Trade: Image 4
    • LNG vessel deliveries by capacity group vs short-term/spot charter rates
    • Trade: Table 1
  • Risks and uncertainties
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