Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015

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25 January 2016

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015

Report summary

The key driver of LNG growth in 2015 was new Australian supply. In 2016, we expect output to continue rising, with first LNG from the USA a key driver. By 2020, we expect global supply to rise by 49%, as further projects in both these countries are brought onstream. We expect most projects targeting Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2016 to be delayed although some projects will proceed. We assume new US LNG projects will be delayed with buyers' appetites for Henry Hub linked LNG subdued. Beyond 2017, the prospects for new pre FID supply become even bleaker. By 2024 however, we expect the market for new supply to have improved and we forecast global LNG supply to have more than doubled between 2015-2035.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • LNG supply - operational and under construction
      • Australia
      • Indonesia
      • USA
      • Malaysia
      • Russia
      • Cameroon
    • Supply outages
      • Shortfall below nominal capacity
      • Indonesia
      • Algeria
      • Nigeria
      • Angola
      • Yemen
      • Kenai (USA)
      • Arun and Bontang (Indonesia)
      • Marsa el Brega (Libya)
      • Damietta and ELNG (Egypt)
      • Arzew and Skikda (Algeria)
    • Projects targeting FID
      • Near term prospects (supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016)
      • Atlantic Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
      • Pacific Basin
        • Expected
        • Wildcards
      • Longer term prospects
        • North America
        • East Africa
        • West Africa
        • Russia
        • South East Asia
        • Australia
        • East Mediterranean
      • Which projects will proceed?
    • Global LNG capacity
    • LNG output forecast
      • The next five years
      • Post 2020 outlook and prospect for pre FID supply
    • Project impact
      • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
    • LNG shipping
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • US LNG shut-ins
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
      • Global unforeseen outage risk factor
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Downsides
        • Nigeria LNG growth
        • South East Asia LNG output
        • North Africa LNG exports
        • North American LNG exports
      • Upsides
        • Upside to modest Qatari growth
        • Iran LNG potential
        • East Mediterranean

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • Map - LNG supply facilities (existing and under construction)
  • Nominal capacity v LNG output (existing and under construction)
  • Start dates of LNG supply facilities (recently commissioned and under construction)
  • Global LNG capacity
  • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
  • LNG vessel deliveries by capacity group vs short-term/spot charter rates
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Summary of significant supply outages
  • Map - supply projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016
  • Map - longer term LNG supply prospects
  • LNG nominal capacity potentially available by 2030
  • LNG supply outlook by source country
  • Trade: Image 4
  • LNG nominal capacity associated with projects targeting FID in 2015 and 2016

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015

    PDF 960.57 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015

    ZIP 1.37 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG supply - H2 2015.xls

    XLS 1.20 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 53.56 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 57.13 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 79.08 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 781.97 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 813.72 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 545.89 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 384.60 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 287.55 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 331.22 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 101.14 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 108.31 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 89.90 KB

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