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Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H2 2016

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24 January 2017

Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H2 2016

Report summary

The key driver of LNG growth in 2015 was new Australian supply. In 2016, we expect output to continue rising, with first LNG from the USA a key driver. By 2020, we expect global supply to rise by 49%, as further projects in both these countries are brought onstream. We expect most projects targeting Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2016 to be delayed although some projects will proceed. We assume new US LNG projects will be delayed with buyers' appetites for Henry Hub linked LNG subdued. Beyond 2017, the prospects for new pre FID supply become even bleaker. By 2024 however, we expect the market for new supply to have improved and we forecast global LNG supply to have more than doubled between 2015-2035.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • LNG supply - operational and under construction
      • LNG supply projects under construction - Key markets
        • Australia
        • Indonesia
        • USA
        • Malaysia
        • Russia
        • Cameroon
      • Ramp up assumptions
    • Supply outages
      • Shortfall below nominal capacity
      • Summary of significant supply outages
      • Kenai (USA)
      • Arun and Bontang (Indonesia)
      • Marsa el Brega (Libya)
      • Damietta and ELNG (Egypt)
      • Arzew and Skikda (Algeria)
      • Expected
      • Wildcards
      • Expected
      • Wildcards
      • North America
      • East Africa
      • West Africa
      • Russia
      • South East Asia
      • Australia
      • Middle East
    • LNG output forecast
      • The next five years
      • US utilisation could be impacted
      • Post 2022 outlook and prospect for pre-FID supply
    • Global LNG capacity
    • Project impact
    • LNG shipping
    • The current environment
      • Oil price
      • Pace of Australian LNG growth
      • Competition between Russian gas and US LNG in the European market
      • Other short term shut-ins / capacity restrictions
    • Long term regional uncertainties
      • Cost deflation
      • FLNG
      • Declining output from legacy plants
      • North American LNG exports
      • Iran LNG potential
      • East Mediterranean

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Map - LNG supply facilities (existing and under construction)
  • Nominal capacity v LNG output (existing and under construction)
  • Start dates of LNG supply facilities (under construction)
  • Global LNG capacity
  • Atlantic potential LNG capacity - impact of market constraints
  • Pacific potential LNG Capacity - impact of market constraints
  • LNG vessel deliveries by capacity group vs short-term/spot charter rates
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Map - supply projects targeting FID in 2017
  • LNG nominal capacity associated with projects targeting FID in 2017
  • Map - longer term LNG supply prospects
  • LNG nominal capacity potentially available by 2035
  • LNG supply outlook by source country
  • Economics of Russian piped gas vs US LNG to Europe
  • US LNG - Cash costs to Europe
  • US LNG utilisation vs capacity
  • US LNG flows by destination

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    GGS LNG Supply - Global.xls

    XLS 1.99 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H2 2016

    PDF 1.33 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook - LNG Supply - H2 2016

    ZIP 2.58 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 78.23 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 783.27 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 462.16 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 126.46 KB

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