Upstream activity in North America is lower than ever. Given prevailing WTI and Henry Hub prices, producers in all but the lowest-cost sub-plays across the continent have little incentive to drill. The rig count in the US Lower 48 has plummeted and year-on-year North American gas supply growth is expected to stall in 2016. However, while supply growth is decelerating, reduced service costs and increasing recovery rates mean that production potential is higher than ever. The reduced wellhead breakevens mean lower long-term gas prices.
Prices should still support the investment required to connect US and Canadian supplies to higher-value markets through pipes, industrial projects, and liquefaction capacity. As these connections come online, prices should rise enough to drive a muted recovery in activity. Backed up by contributions from both gas and liquids plays, annual US and Canadian production will grow into the next decade.
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