North American unconventional production has remained resilient in the face of low oil prices but US shale gas has entered a mature phase and it is unlikely the cost curve will go any lower. Production is expected to exceed 1000 bcm by 2026. Meanwhile, China has set ambitious targets for unconventional output. Although progress has been and we are more optimistic in our near-term outlook for production, risk remains to the downside as China's unconventional sector remains technically and commercially challenging. Elsewhere in the world, unconventional potential remains significant however development progress has been primarily incentivised or stymied by government initiatives.