North American unconventional production has remained resilient in the face of low oil prices. We expect output to exceed 1,000 bcm by 2020. Technology, drilling improvements and optimisation continue to lower costs and increase well performance. Meanwhile, China's unconventional potential is receiving greater focus; although we do not expect material growth until post-2025. Output is forecast to reach 284 bcm by 2035, meeting nearly half China's domestic demand. In contrast, unconventional prospects in Europe continue to weaken in light of public opposition.