North American unconventional production has remained resilient in the face of low oil prices but as oil and gas prices recover in 2017 we expect a strong growth trajectory going forward. Production is expected to exceed 1000 bcm by 2025. Meanwhile China has set ambitious targets for unconventional output. Although progress has been made in the Sichuan Basin risk remains to the downside and we expect China will require more than a decade to ramp up production. In contrast unconventional prospects in Europe continue to weaken with the exception of the UK where prospects for shale have improved in 2016.