We forecast that export volumes from Central Asia will grow from 57 bcm in 2015 to over 90 bcm post-2025. Exports to China from Turkmenistan's South Iolotan field, through an expanded Trans-Asia pipeline will underpin export growth.
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Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.
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Turkmenistan’s South Iolotan development provides the basis for significant production growth
Foreign investment required to sustain Uzbekistan’s production
Kazakhstan’s output dominated by associated gas production
State company KazMunaiGas is involved in all aspects of Kazakhstan's hydrocarbon development and sales, but IOCs either operate or have a majority interest in all three of the major fields. CNPC is also very active in the country with a number of gas projects.
Domestic gasification facilitates gas demand growth in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but government policy will cause a marginal decline in Uzbekistan
Excess export capacity due to underutilised pipelines to Russia
Trans-Asia pipeline has opened a new export frontier
China exports consistently exceed those to Russia, exports to Iran have shown instability
Fall in exports to Russia will be offset by growth to China
Exports to China reach 70 bcm by the late 2020s as flows to Russia dwindle
Risks and uncertainties
In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:
Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
Indigenous production potential
Domestic demand by country
Existing export pipelines
Pipelines under construction
Available export volumes vs available export capacity
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Commodity market report | Jul 2016
Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2016
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