Commodity Market Report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2016

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28 July 2016

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2016

Report summary

We forecast that export volumes from Central Asia will grow from 57 bcm in 2015 to over 90 bcm post-2025. Exports to China from Turkmenistan's South Iolotan field, through an expanded Trans-Asia pipeline will underpin export growth.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Turkmenistan’s South Iolotan development provides the basis for significant production growth
    • Foreign investment required to sustain Uzbekistan’s production
    • Kazakhstan’s output dominated by associated gas production
      • State company KazMunaiGas is involved in all aspects of Kazakhstan's hydrocarbon development and sales, but IOCs either operate or have a majority interest in all three of the major fields. CNPC is also very active in the country with a number of gas projects.
    • Domestic gasification facilitates gas demand growth in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but government policy will cause a marginal decline in Uzbekistan
    • Pipe
    • LNG
    • Export potential
      • Excess export capacity due to underutilised pipelines to Russia
    • To Russia
    • To China
    • To Iran
    • Strategy
    • Market access
      • Trans-Asia pipeline has opened a new export frontier
    • Recent Trends
      • China exports consistently exceed those to Russia, exports to Iran have shown instability
    • Outlook
    • Medium term
      • Fall in exports to Russia will be offset by growth to China
    • Long term
      • Exports to China reach 70 bcm by the late 2020s as flows to Russia dwindle
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Indigenous production potential
  • Domestic demand by country
  • Export capacity
  • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Existing export pipelines
  • Pipelines under construction
  • Proposed pipelines
  • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix
  • Exports to Russia
  • Exports to China
  • Exports to Iran

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long term supply outlook Central Asia H1 2016.xls

    XLS 359.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2016

    PDF 912.85 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Central Asia - H1 2016

    ZIP 991.66 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 649.78 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 85.11 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 82.38 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 114.92 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 81.33 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 87.60 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 102.00 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 79.81 KB