Commodity market report
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14 Pages

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016


Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

Report summary

Norway is the second largest exporter of gas into Europe, with over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity ands the 4 mmtpa Snohvit LNG plant. Norwegian exports reached a record high of 115 bcm in 2015 and going forward we expect Norway to pursue its market share in Europe in the face of competition from Russia and US LNG. Longer term, declines at legacy fields and uneconomic new developments will be detrimental to Norwegian exports which will fall to 70 bcm by 2035.  

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016 PDF - 876.50 KB 14 Pages, 4 Tables, 11 Figures
  • Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016.xls XLS - 546.50 KB

Description

Volatility in oil markets and the growth of unconventional gas supply have created a high degree of uncertainty about future gas demand and the direction of gas prices.

This Gas Markets Long Term Outlook report forecasts future pricing, based on deep analysis of gas supply and demand fundamentals. Additionally, it addresses complex questions on gas flows, identifies future opportunities and informs fuel purchasing strategies.

Participants and investors can use this long term outlook report to understand gas markets and assess the impact of global gas dynamics and key market drivers.

Wood Mackenzie provides detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Norway is Europe‚Äôs second largest gas supplier, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
    • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply from 2019, but other investment faces delays
    • Exploration success, including Barents Sea, required to sustain long-term production
  • Costs
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
  • Demand
  • Infrastructure
    • Pipe
      • Around 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
    • LNG
      • Existing LNG projects
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Export potential
      • Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
  • Contracts
    • Spot price linkage has increased in recent years at the expense of contract supply flexibility
  • Trade
    • Strategy
    • Market access
    • Recent Trends
      • Despite low commodity prices in 2015, Norwegian production exceeded the NPD forecast again to reach 117 bcm
    • Outlook
      • Medium term
        • Norway maintains export levels and European market share while also benefitting from spot price exposure
      • Long term
        • Norway contributes to oversupply in Europe from 2019; new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 15 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Supply
    • Indigenous production potential
  • Costs
    • Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
  • Demand
    • Domestic demand by sector
  • Infrastructure
    • Export capacity
    • Existing export pipelines
    • Under construction pipelines
    • Possible pipelines
    • Infrastructure: Table 4
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Contracts
    • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Trade
    • Norway pipe and LNG exports
    • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)
    • Export outlook v export potential
    • Export supply mix
  • Risks and uncertainties
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