Commodity market report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

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Report summary

Norway is the second largest exporter of gas into Europe, with over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity ands the 4 mmtpa Snohvit LNG plant. Norwegian exports reached a record high of 115 bcm in 2015 and going forward we expect Norway to pursue its market share in Europe in the face of competition from Russia and US LNG. Longer term, declines at legacy fields and uneconomic new developments will be detrimental to Norwegian exports which will fall to 70 bcm by 2035.

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    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

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    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

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  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016.xls

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  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 619.71 KB

  • Document


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  • Document


    PDF 96.45 KB

  • Document


    PDF 60.63 KB

  • Document


    PDF 110.66 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 61.51 KB

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    PDF 85.97 KB

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    PDF 101.71 KB

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    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 60.86 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Norway is Europe’s second largest gas supplier, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
    • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply from 2019, but other investment faces delays
    • Exploration success, including Barents Sea, required to sustain long-term production
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
  • Demand
      • Around 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
      • Existing LNG projects
    • Spot price linkage has increased in recent years at the expense of contract supply flexibility
    • Strategy
    • Market access
      • Despite low commodity prices in 2015, Norwegian production exceeded the NPD forecast again to reach 117 bcm
        • Norway maintains export levels and European market share while also benefitting from spot price exposure
        • Norway contributes to oversupply in Europe from 2019; new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:


  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Indigenous production potential
  • Domestic demand by sector
  • Export capacity
  • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix
  • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Norway pipe and LNG exports
  • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)


  • Existing export pipelines
  • Under construction pipelines
  • Possible pipelines
  • Infrastructure: Table 4

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