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Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

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10 August 2016

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

Report summary

Norway is the second largest exporter of gas into Europe, with over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity ands the 4 mmtpa Snohvit LNG plant. Norwegian exports reached a record high of 115 bcm in 2015 and going forward we expect Norway to pursue its market share in Europe in the face of competition from Russia and US LNG. Longer term, declines at legacy fields and uneconomic new developments will be detrimental to Norwegian exports which will fall to 70 bcm by 2035.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Norway is Europe’s second largest gas supplier, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
    • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply from 2019, but other investment faces delays
    • Exploration success, including Barents Sea, required to sustain long-term production
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
  • Demand
    • Pipe
      • Around 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
    • LNG
      • Existing LNG projects
    • Export potential
      • Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
    • Spot price linkage has increased in recent years at the expense of contract supply flexibility
    • Strategy
    • Market access
    • Recent Trends
      • Despite low commodity prices in 2015, Norwegian production exceeded the NPD forecast again to reach 117 bcm
    • Outlook
      • Medium term
        • Norway maintains export levels and European market share while also benefitting from spot price exposure
      • Long term
        • Norway contributes to oversupply in Europe from 2019; new Polarled developments are delayed, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Indigenous production potential
  • Domestic demand by sector
  • Export capacity
  • Contracted exports vs export potential
  • Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix
  • Existing export pipelines
  • Under construction pipelines
  • Possible pipelines
  • Infrastructure: Table 4
  • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
  • Norway pipe and LNG exports
  • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

    PDF 876.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016

    ZIP 1.02 MB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2016.xls

    XLS 546.50 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 619.71 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 90.76 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 96.45 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 60.63 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 110.66 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 61.51 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 85.97 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 101.71 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 60.86 KB

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