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Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2017

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06 October 2017

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2017

Report summary

Norway is the second largest exporter of gas into Europe and piped export to Europe reached 109 bcm in 2016. Export have been sustained at these levels through the first half of 2017 and we expect Norway to continue defending its position in the European market - supported by volumes from Troll and other existing fields, the development of Aasta Hansteen via the new Polarled pipeline and accelerated timing of the Troll West Phase 3 project.  Longer term, declines at legacy fields and uneconomic new developments will be detrimental to Norwegian exports which will fall to around 60 bcm by 2035.  

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Norway will maintain its status as Europe's second largest gas supplier through the mid-term
    • Exploration success, including Barents Sea, required to sustain long-term production
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
    • Recent Trends
    • Outlook
      • Medium term
        • Norway maintains export levels and defends European market share
      • Long term
        • Norway contributes to oversupply in Europe from 2019; new Polarled developments are delayed and YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
    • Short term
    • Medium term
    • Longer term

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Indigenous production potential
  • Delivered cost of Norwegian gas to Europe (2022)
  • Breakeven cost of Norwegian gas*
  • Norway pipe and LNG exports
  • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    global gas markets long term supply outlook norway H1 2017.xls

    XLS 508.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2017

    PDF 851.20 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H1 2017

    ZIP 1023.61 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 619.11 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 87.97 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 127.79 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 96.77 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 59.55 KB

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