Commodity market report

Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H2 2014

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Report summary

Wood Mackenzie's latest view on Norway's role as a major gas exporter both in terms of its gas export potential (the inputs to our global view formulation) and the outlook for gas exports from this source (namely the outputs from our analysis).

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global gas markets - Norway supply - H2 2014.xls

    XLS 418.50 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H2 2014

    PDF 889.13 KB

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term supply outlook - Norway - H2 2014

    ZIP 975.44 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 609.70 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 80.89 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 70.13 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 56.53 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 101.46 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 58.29 KB

  • Document

    Contracts

    PDF 77.18 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 90.92 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 51.77 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Indigenous production potential
    • Europe’s second largest importer of gas, adjusting flexible volumes to market conditions
    • Aasta Hansteen is a significant new source of supply, but other investments are being re-evaluated
    • Exploration success (including Barents Sea) is required to sustain production longer-term
    • Cost of marginal Norwegian supply is rising
    • Breakeven cost of Norway pipe supply to Europe*
    • Domestic demand by sector
    • Export capacity
    • Over 150 bcm of pipe export capacity to Europe
    • Existing export pipelines
    • Under construction pipelines
    • Possible pipelines
    • Existing LNG projects
      • Sufficient export potential to meet NPD forecast
      • Available export volumes vs available export capacity
    • Contracted exports vs export potential
    • Spot price linkage has increased in recent years; contract supply flexibility has decreased
    • Strategy
    • Market access
      • Despite mild weather Norway will exceed NPD forecast in 2014
        • Norway benefits from high spot prices and lack of alternative supply
        • Norway contributes to oversupply from 2019, YTF (including Barents) needed to sustain long-term exports
    • Pipe and storage

Tables and charts

This report includes 15 images and tables including:

Images

  • Map - key domestic and export infrastructure
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Costs: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Contracts: Image 1
  • Export outlook v export potential
  • Export supply mix
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Norway pipe and LNG exports
  • Norway production vs NPD (2013, 2014)

Tables

  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Infrastructure: Table 3
  • Infrastructure: Table 4

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